Wednesday Nov. 24 US Market Wrap - Financial Juice
- Stocks rose as investors ignored tapering concerns raised in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting. As short-end rates rose, the dollar strengthened and the yield curve flattened.
- Following the release of the minutes, the S&P 500 rose briefly, with real estate and energy stocks leading gains. The Nasdaq 100, which is heavily weighted toward technology, outperformed major benchmarks. Trading volume has been lower than usual in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
- The dollar index has risen to its highest level since July 2020. Despite accelerating inflation, data released earlier today showed a resilient US consumer.
- The committee "would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures," according to the Fed meeting minutes from November 2-3. Since then, inflation has risen to its highest level since 1990, prompting Fed officials to suggest that a faster pace of tapering should be discussed at the December meeting.
- This has caused a rise in treasury yields, with the two-year yield reaching its highest level since early March 2020 and markets bringing forward bets on rate hikes.
- Personal spending in the United States increased more than expected in October from the previous month, while a closely watched inflation measure showed the largest annual increase in three decades. Furthermore, data show that 199,000 people filed initial jobless claims in the week ending November 20, the fewest since 1969, while orders placed with U.S. factories for business equipment rose more than expected in October, indicating solid momentum for capital investment at the start of the fourth quarter.
- Policymakers are now focused on containing inflation, with ultra-loose, the pandemic-era stimulus set to be phased out. At the same time, investors are nervous about the resurgence of COVID-19, particularly in Europe.
- Oil fell slightly the day after US stockpiles increased and the announcement of a coordinated release of crude from strategic reserves.
- The White House announced on Tuesday that a release of 50 million barrels from its reserves in coordination with the US, China, Japan, India, the UK, and South Korea.
🕵️♂️ I SPY TA - Wednesday Nov. 24, 2021
SPY - Recap - Nov. 24
- Open: 466.06
- High: 469.57
- Low: 465.19
- Close: 469.41
- Volume: 57,130,750
SPY - Nov. 26 - Analysis
Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (11/24)
- Put Volume Total: 2,016,976
- Call Volume Total: 1,766,057
- Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.14
- Put Open Interest Total: 12,393,956
- Call Open Interest Total: 6,507,557
- Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: 1.90
- IV: 13.77
- Dvol: 0.87
- Key: 470
- Crossover: 468
Technical Analysis - 65 min
- Support : 464.76
- Pivot: 467.51 (current support)
- Resistance - 470.73
- Bullish Targets: 473.55 - 475.89 - 478.31
- Bearish Targets: 462.81 - 461.74 - 459.47 - 458.39
- Support at 9 SMMA
- Bulls need to recapture 470.73 and hold by early next week.
RSI - 65 min.
- Bears want to break 33.9-
- Bulls want to see 63.35+
- RSI favors Bulls
MACD - 65 min.
- Bullish cross
- Bulls looking to extend
- MACD line near 0
SPY - Dec. 31, 2021
- Range: 470.07 - 462.22
- Pivot: 453.96
- Bullish Targets: 481/60 - 488.27 - 496.41 - 503.71
- Bearish Targets: 448.62 - 437.28 - 428.32
Not trying to call top but when will the 9 SMMA be tested on weekly? Something to keep an eye on.
Currently at 451.96
Need to Know Market Risk - Financial Juice
- OPEC Panel predicts that the SPR release will increase oversupply by 1.1 million barrels every day.
- Fed Minutes: Some participants preferred a slightly faster pace of reductions, resulting in an earlier conclusion to net purchases.
- US Consumer Spending MoM Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1%, Previous 0.6%) S&P 500 strengthened.
- OPEC+ weighs shift in oil policy after the US-led SPR release - Sources.
- OPEC+ and Gazprom are creating fake tightness in the energy markets.
- US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate Actual 2.1% (Forecast 2.2%, Previous 2.0%) DXY weakened before strengthening, S&P 500 strengthened before weakening.
- JMMC members will meet on November 30th, OPEC on December 1st, and OPEC+ on December 2nd - 2 Sources.
- Scientists in South Africa and the WHO are investigating a recently discovered variety that has been reported as being quite different from prior forms. Flights from South Africa and other African countries have been banned by the United Kingdom and Israel. Two instances of the strain have been confirmed in Hong Kong.
Thanks for reading,