Nov 28, 2021
[9 min Read]
Why hello there my dearest ape brethren, how are you all?
Magnus here, the only comment I got on my little glance into a tiny biotech post was that there was:
“There's way more due diligence involved in this play. This was mediocre af”
While I was most joyful that I had some feedback, the contents lft me less so. At the time I did not see it as pertinent to go down the rabbit hole just to reach the end and say:
“News coming, possible rocket fuel, expect offering”
But you know how the internet is, if what I type doesn't fit into the readers bias they tend to go bananas and on a down-voting spree. However, tis' of no importance! We are here to share what we find and comment on it! Followers and up-votes are only an ego caressing bonus.
Due to the only comment being negative and the lack of other jucy candidates today we shall peek a little further down the rabbit hole.
Tomorrow we should have something new to talk about when FINRA releases data!
Who is CNTX?
CNTX is the ticker symbol for the publicly traded company Context Therapeutics Inc.
Context Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that focuses mainly on developing therapies for female cancer patients. They are based in Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Well, originally they turned up on my screen while I was sifting through companies on Finviz. You see... CNTX is a tiny biotech company who's market cap is only $7.28M and it also has a miniscule float of 280,000 of a total of 1.51M shares outstanding (according to Finviz).
These are not exactly fantastic numbers if you are looking to invest in a multi billion dollar international blue chip stock. It does however present an interesting case as it is ripe for manipulation and a FOMO frenzy.
Before we get into my opinion, let us have a look at the company.
As mentioned above, they are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. They focus mainly on developing therapies to try and cure/slow the progress of female cancers.
They have two main drug candidates in their “pipeline”: Onapriston (ONA-XR) and Claudin 6 (CLDN6xCD3).
Here are a couple videos, one from the Co-Founder and CEO and the other from the former President where they talk a little about the company.
An interview (2018) with Scott Applebaum (President of Context Therapeutics between 2017 and 2019) Source link: Linkedin.
Citybizlist Interview: Part I - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovPWEfzv1GU
Citybizlist Interview: Part II - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYFG0LIhQbA
Citybizlist Interview: Part III - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JStfRxG6w8Q
*Tyligand Biosciences Ltd licensed rights to ONA-XR in China, Hong Kong, and Macau.**Granted FDA Fast Track designation.mBCa=metastatic breast cancer.Source link: Context Therapeutics website.
Onapristone is a “full progesterone receptor antagonist”, an investigational medicine that seeks to inhibit progesterone signaling by blocking the interaction between the progesterone and its receptor. Onapristone is currently the only known full progesterone receptor antagonist.
The drug was originally developed as an oral contraceptive in 1986 by Schering AG, a research-centered German multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Wedding, Berlin.
The drug was discontinued during phase III clinical trials in 1995 due to findings that liver function abnormalities developed in a majority of patients.
Developers that worked on the drug over the years include:
Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals;
Bayer Schering Pharma;
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.
Progesterone is usually responsible for the development of sex organs, the regulation of the menstral cycle and plays a key role in hormonally-regulated tissue such as the breast.. Unfortunately cancerous cells “hijack” the patients progesterone and use it to stimulate proliferation, metastases, regeneration and immune evasion.Source link: Context Therapeutics website.
Context Therapeutics got its hands on Onapristone from Arno Therapeutics in 2018, when arno was shutting up shop.Source link: businesswire
The drug is currently in phase II clinical trials. Onapristone seeks to show some efficacy in the treatment of:
Low grade serous ovarian cancer (a rare form of ovarian cancer accounting for less than 10% of ovarian cancers Source link: Cancer Network);
Granulosa cell tumor of Ovary (a rare type of ovarian cancer, accounting for around 2% of ovarian cancers Source link: Rare Diseases);
Breast cancer (a woman in the US has a ~13% chance to get breast cancer during her lifetime Source link: Cancer.org);
Endometrial cancer (Around 50,000 women in the US are diagnosed with the disease every year Source link: Hopkins Medicine);
A more recent phase I study showed promising results for Onapristone for female patients that had already undergone other treatments for metastatic progesterone receptor-expressing cancers.Source link: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (2018).
CNTX conducted a safety evaluation with an Emphasis on Hepatotoxicity that returned promising results for their slow-release formula.Source link: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (2020).
Claudin 6 is currently in the preclinical testing stage. The drug seeks to cure/slowdown the progression of ovarian and endometrial cancer.
To be honest I'm not here to preach Claudin 6'. It's in preclinical trials, there is not much to go on. The main focus or “play” at hand is currently the presentation on Onapristone trials.
They have kindly handed us their intended milestones in their FWP filing
We can see more data is expected in the future. What a stupid remark...
Well they recently appointed a new CFO and CLO Source link: Yahoo Finance. You have already seen the CEO if you watched the videos above. You can find a full list of the team, directors and scientific advisors here and I'm sure you can seek them out on Linkedin if you want to stare at their faces.
Context Therapeutics Inc went public on October the 19th 2021. The company was listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker CNTX. The IPO was priced at $5 with 5.75M shares for gross proceedings of $28.75M.
And here is the volume profile since IPO… Because, why not? It shows us that most volume occurs at $5.30.Is there really any point in drawing lines on a chart?
Let us delve into some data on the company
Note: This data seems stale...
total shares outstanding (5M from the offering + Insiders ownership shares) insiders are subjected to 180 days of lock out period before their shares can be traded.
Confirmation can be found here on the Nasdaq website.
At 5M shares (and if the float is 280K) the float is still low at 5.6%.
Delve into their financials if you must but basically they will need cash. A lot of their proceeds from the IPO were already allocated for use as per their FWP filing with the SEC (Can also be found in the S-1/A):
“Magnus, why might this data be important?”
I hear you say.
Well my dear smooth brained simian simpleton, I will bestow upon you my opinion!
It's a small biotech company with a 7.28M market cap according to Finviz. But Finviz is wrong, do the math… 10.96M shares outstanding x $4.96 = ~$54.36M.Which on the scale of things is still a relatively small company. So it can be more easily manipulated…
But it also plays to our bias of “it seems cheap”.
Sitting currently at $4.96 this also plays to our bias that it seems cheap, we also have an easier time imagining a 10x'er coming from a $5 stock than a $500 stock. Tis' but a fallacy, dear friend.
Given the unavailability of shares available (even total shares outstanding is still very low), if there is some major news the price action could truly be wild, rocket emojis will be expected, and lambo's purchased.
Obviously, Onapristone is currently the main focus for us speculators. Positive results and we have the potential “to moon”. Any harm done to the patients has the potential for some epic loss porn, especially liver function abnormalities (the downfall of its less refined predecessor).
On December the 8th 2021 CNTX will present early phase 1 results (on their Onapristone (ONA-XR) - (ONAWA) breast cancer drug).
So all eyes and ears will be on what is to be presented.
Global News Wire's article quotes the CEO:
““We are pleased that ONA-XR data from multiple stages of breast cancer will be presented at SABCS including the first clinical data from the ONAWA trial, sponsored by the Spanish cancer research group SOLTI, of ONA-XR in early-stage breast cancer and updates from two ongoing clinical trials of ONA-XR in metastatic breast cancer. We look forward to connecting with the oncology community at SABCS, to discuss advancements in breast cancer and further highlight the potential of ONA-XR to make a meaningful impact in the lives of people living with breast cancer,” said Martin Lehr, CEO of Context Therapeutics.”
Which sounds positive, but these things always do…
As mentioned in my last post on the company. It's your standard cancer focused biotech play, incredibly high potential for insane profits accompanied by insanely high risk.
Bears should wait for the news and try to catch the top, or ride it on the way down. Tis risky business due to potential pumps or manipulation, but i'm sure you know what you are doing.
Bears can also pray that the presentation data shows the drug has disastrous consequences for the patients, but this seems both immoral and unlikely.
Bulls should anticipate good news and ride the FOMO train all the way to the bank. Long term doesn't look great, this is biopharma and I believe an offering is on the table after a “decent pop”.
Bulls can also pray that the presentation shows groundbreaking results and some huge biopharma whale buys it out instantly. Which I again highly doubt.
What differentiates CNTX slightly from your “standard” biotech play is the miniscule amount of shares available. Mentions on social media are already picking up and if the mob shows up, there aren't that many shares to go around!
*Waves both hairy hands in the air*
But enough of this quest for acknowledgement. Be off with you, I've had my say.
- Magnus Chimpski