10 Reasons to Buy $AMZN November Calls Ahead of Earnings - A DD From the Chess Guy

Let’s not make this complicated. $AMZN has been consolidating since its past earnings disappointment and has found solid support at the $3200 level. At $3300, it’s the time to at least initiate a position if you don’t have one already. $AMZN currently sits at an IV rank of 1%. That means over the past year the IV has been higher 99% of the time. What makes IV swell? Earnings. What happens when IV swells? The price of the underlying option goes up. The S&P 500 is up 19.26% YTD, 30.66% over the past 365 days. $AMZN is essentially flat in both regards and is the worst-performing FAANG name on a yearly basis. Comparatively, FAANG names like $GOOG and $MSFT have far outperformed the S&P. [1] $AMZN is breaking out of a descending wedge with large gaps to fill in the 3400-3600 range. [2] I know a lot of you believe TA is voodoo, but there are people with a lot of money who trade according to fun shapes on a chart, and their trades move price action just as much as anyone else’s. Whether it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy or a crystal ball, we have to pay some attention when the Technical Analysis people start crowing en masse, and that’s what’s happening here. Antitrust is not a headwind here. One, because the likelihood of any significant antitrust legislation getting by the powerful lobbying force of $AMZN is nil. And two, because if split, $AMZN (and $GOOG)’s businesses would likely each command higher valuations. And on that note: Barron’s on $AMZN: “Valuing AWS at 15x 2023 sales gives you a market cap of $1.5T, meaning that investors are getting Amazon’s e-commerce business and its nascent advertising business almost for free.” [3] Barron’s isn’t the only publication to recently recognize this, but I hesitate to link to anything Motley has done because I have more self-respect than that. Out of 64 analysts who have covered $AMZN in the past year, all 64 rank the stock as a buy. [4] CEO Andy Jassy lowered upcoming ER expectations considerably in the past ER, which is what caused the sell-off. For those of you who don’t know, doubt is a good thing. Lowered expectations are a good thing. Because the bar for $AMZN’s October quarter has been lowered tremendously, it’ll be that much easier to achieve a strong beat, and a positive surprise. Amazon-backed Rivian's EV is set to roll out in September, one month before the ER hype begins to build. It isn't the biggest deal in the world, but it's going to give analysts some more fuel to write positive articles about $AMZN's future growth opportunities and maybe bump up a few price targets, all of which are sitting well above $AMZN's current price. I put this at the end because it is the most speculative point, but the possibility of a split still looms. If they announce a split, forget all this, sell your house, and all-in your life savings, because that would change the game. Not only because $AMZN is literally (on a price basis, not a valuation basis) an expensive stock with even more expensive options (Which Jassy currently owns many, many of), but because it would almost inevitably lead to $AMZN’s Dow inclusion, a forced buying event similar in nature to $TSLA’s SPY inclusion. Tl;dr: It’d be in both the shareholder's and Jassy’s best interest (if he ever wants to be able to sell any of those options, that is) to split the stock. Summary: It’s oversold, many HF’s bought in last quarter at a much higher price, Jassy gave himself a low bar for their first quarter under new management (Common among new CEOs), and the IV is at a one year low. Buy November calls near the money for a bounce, or just to hold. Grab some here, double down if we dip to $3200, and at every $100 dip to follow. Those of you who remember me from my last account know that I put my money where my DD is, and this post is no different. I have 53k riding on this trade and plan to add more if given the opportunity. ​ https://preview.redd.it/9a8byws9zdj71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4effcb2da14e9eb0bd29f413ae5c92af0c42d8b4 https://preview.redd.it/yjdh21t9zdj71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca40ed29844511646f711e6d1d2198b0452b5b32 https://preview.redd.it/0ftb1ws9zdj71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c62400a2788c93be2de6435e303bba5227dc81e9 https://preview.redd.it/zcl4e0t9zdj71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a280206b18eeccba212d1bee3c49a633bf6c5ad https://preview.redd.it/fwyem3t9zdj71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c7f35286edd3c1feb437b793e17520ed48bbb87 Updates to come. https://twitter.com/mukund/status/1429888554742665224/photo/1 https://twitter.com/traderstewie/status/1429888383736696833/photo/1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-apple-microsoft-alphabet-amazon-facebook-stock-51629429127 https://twitter.com/TrendSpider/status/1429971720748769300/photo/1

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Aug 25, 2021

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AMZN

Amazon.com Inc.

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10 Reasons to Buy $AMZN November Calls Ahead of Earnings - A DD From the Chess Guy

bullish

Let’s not make this complicated.

  1. $AMZN has been consolidating since its past earnings disappointment and has found solid support at the $3200 level. At $3300, it’s the time to at least initiate a position if you don’t have one already.
  2. $AMZN currently sits at an IV rank of 1%. That means over the past year the IV has been higher 99% of the time. What makes IV swell? Earnings. What happens when IV swells? The price of the underlying option goes up.
  3. The S&P 500 is up 19.26% YTD, 30.66% over the past 365 days. $AMZN is essentially flat in both regards and is the worst-performing FAANG name on a yearly basis. Comparatively, FAANG names like $GOOG and $MSFT have far outperformed the S&P. [1]
  4. $AMZN is breaking out of a descending wedge with large gaps to fill in the 3400-3600 range. [2] I know a lot of you believe TA is voodoo, but there are people with a lot of money who trade according to fun shapes on a chart, and their trades move price action just as much as anyone else’s. Whether it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy or a crystal ball, we have to pay some attention when the Technical Analysis people start crowing en masse, and that’s what’s happening here.
  5. Antitrust is not a headwind here. One, because the likelihood of any significant antitrust legislation getting by the powerful lobbying force of $AMZN is nil. And two, because if split, $AMZN (and $GOOG)’s businesses would likely each command higher valuations. And on that note:
  6. Barron’s on $AMZN: “Valuing AWS at 15x 2023 sales gives you a market cap of $1.5T, meaning that investors are getting Amazon’s e-commerce business and its nascent advertising business almost for free.” [3] Barron’s isn’t the only publication to recently recognize this, but I hesitate to link to anything Motley has done because I have more self-respect than that.
  7. Out of 64 analysts who have covered $AMZN in the past year, all 64 rank the stock as a buy. [4]
  8. CEO Andy Jassy lowered upcoming ER expectations considerably in the past ER, which is what caused the sell-off. For those of you who don’t know, doubt is a good thing. Lowered expectations are a good thing. Because the bar for $AMZN’s October quarter has been lowered tremendously, it’ll be that much easier to achieve a strong beat, and a positive surprise.
  9. Amazon-backed Rivian's EV is set to roll out in September, one month before the ER hype begins to build. It isn't the biggest deal in the world, but it's going to give analysts some more fuel to write positive articles about $AMZN's future growth opportunities and maybe bump up a few price targets, all of which are sitting well above $AMZN's current price.
  10. I put this at the end because it is the most speculative point, but the possibility of a split still looms. If they announce a split, forget all this, sell your house, and all-in your life savings, because that would change the game. Not only because $AMZN is literally (on a price basis, not a valuation basis) an expensive stock with even more expensive options (Which Jassy currently owns many, many of), but because it would almost inevitably lead to $AMZN’s Dow inclusion, a forced buying event similar in nature to $TSLA’s SPY inclusion. Tl;dr: It’d be in both the shareholder's and Jassy’s best interest (if he ever wants to be able to sell any of those options, that is) to split the stock.

Summary: It’s oversold, many HF’s bought in last quarter at a much higher price, Jassy gave himself a low bar for their first quarter under new management (Common among new CEOs), and the IV is at a one year low. Buy November calls near the money for a bounce, or just to hold. Grab some here, double down if we dip to $3200, and at every $100 dip to follow. Those of you who remember me from my last account know that I put my money where my DD is, and this post is no different. I have 53k riding on this trade and plan to add more if given the opportunity.











Updates to come.

  1. https://twitter.com/mukund/status/1429888554742665224/photo/1
  2. https://twitter.com/traderstewie/status/1429888383736696833/photo/1
  3. https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-apple-microsoft-alphabet-amazon-facebook-stock-51629429127
  4. https://twitter.com/TrendSpider/status/1429971720748769300/photo/1
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4 min

3600.00

Target Price

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Confidence

2-6 Months

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