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Aug 9, 2021
[3 min Read]
Alright, listen up because I'm only going to say this once and hopefully you guys listen. The company I'm going to be talking about today is AVIR.
What is AVIR? Well it's a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing oral therapies. It IPO'd recently and has a market cap of currently as I write this 2.75 billion. I know what you're thinking, “yeah yeah yeah another explosive biopharma that will pump and dump”.
Well unlike your traditional clinical stage bio company, these guys have a ridiculous backing from some of the biggest names in the biopharma space.
Cormorant- holds a $200 million + stake.
Bain Capital- $175 million
RA Capital- $167 million
Perceptive- $96 million
Not to mention Goldman Sachs also holds about a $60 million dollar stake. Seems small but when the companies market cap is under 3 billion, all of these stakes add up. I believe institutional ownership is at around 60% which is abnormal in this space.
So what's there to be excited about? In particular one drug. That drug is called AT-527. If you look at the chart of AVIR you'll notice it spiked from roughly 24$ - $94.17 in the span of a month. This is all because of this beautiful little drug. AT-527 is an oral, direct activist antiviral drug candidate which is being evaluated for COVID-19. It is currently in Phase 3 and the results from Phase 2 were astounding. It was well tolerated in 35 COVID-19 patients and in 28 HCV-infected patients. The results were so good in fact they secured a partnership with ROCHE (one of the biggest bio tech companies out there) and continue working together to bring this drug to market.
Now as we've seen, COVID is not going away. The delta variant is spreading rapidly and now CNBC is already touting headlines that supply chain issues are starting again. The fear mongering has started and it's only going to get worse as 40% of the population refuses to get vaccinated. The sentiment has started to change and the market is looking for a cure, I believe AVIR is well equipped to deliver. AVIR is the closest company out there to having a drug in pill form ready to distribute for the population.
CASH AND RUNWAY
So AVIR is in a fantastic situation financially right now. They currently have around $800 million + in cash and are sitting at around $250 million + in debt. They came out and said this will give them enough runway to pursue all their programs through 2023. In biotech it's common for companies to dilute their stock in order to raise cash and this OFTEN times kills momentum. One of the most frustrating things to see as an investor. AVIR also has 2 other programs moving forward (AT-752) Fighting against Dengue Fever and (AT-787) which fights against Hepatitis C.
The stock has been beaten down from its 52 week high of 94$ to roughly $18 on seemingly no news… absurd I know but the rally has started back up. The MACD has curled and we are already at 33$ give or take a few cents. I think moving forward this could easily be a 10 billion dollar company if all goes according to plan. The upwards momentum right now has no plans of slowing down. The RSI is an a pretty healthy spot on the 1 month and 6 month. I believe a short term PT of 55$ is not unreasonable and the sky is the limit for long term potential.
Keep in mind that the distribution of their drug will be much easier too. They are already well equipped to deliver it around the world and it is CONSIDERABLY more feasible to distribute a pill form substance rather than one that needs to be injected.
We are expecting Phase 3 news which could be an amazing catalyst in the 2h of 2021. Not to mention we are also expecting a Phase 1 result of AT-752 for Dengue Fever in 2h of 2021 as well.
This DD isn't the most complex but I promise you take a look for yourself and you will not be disappointed.
As always, My position is currently 1,000 shares at 27$.. skys the limit here fellas, hop in while you can 🚀 🚀
This is not financial advice, just trying to educate