Amyris (AMRYS) - Undervalued Synthetic Biology Company With Great Revenue Projections

Summary •    Amyris is up over 400% over the past three months. •    Amyris still offers tremendous upside value to be had when compared to its peers on P/S. •    New opportunities in 2021 offer upside that's yet to be recognized by the market. Valuation vs Peers Amyris (AMRS) is a synthetic biology company that continues to offer upside despite its recent run-up. This is because they are still getting one of the worst P/S multiples in the industry.  Amyris is getting the lowest multiple of any of its peers. Evogene (EVGN), Berkeley Lights (BLI), Twist Bioscience (TWST) and Codexis (CDXS) are all getting much higher multiples on revenue than Amyris.  Ticker Market Cap Estimated 2021 Revenue Market Cap/Revenue Multiple AMRS 4130 400 10.32 EVGN 338 10 33.8 BLI 4730 150 31.53 TWST 7630 200 38.15 CDXS 1640 100 16.4 Future Prospects Summary 1.    Consumer Brands: Aiming to grow at 50%-100% YoY between now and 2025. They proved with Biossance and Pipette that the consumer brands can earn equity much faster than the multiple the market has set on clean beauty brands  2.    Ingredients Business:  Amyris expects to bring 5-6 new molecules online in 2021. CEO John Melo has stated they expect around $160M of ingredients revenue this year. That is 100%+ growth YoY. 3.    Joint Ventures:  Their joint venture Novvi, a potential JV with Raizen, a monoclonal antibodies platform, and the scaling of a vitamins deal with Yifan and many other items are all on the horizon. Summary from Q4 Earnings Call   https://investors.amyris.com/events-and-presentations?item=77 FY 2020 Highlights •    Record sales revenue of $173m grew 13% versus the prior year. Record Product revenue of $112m •    increased 72% versus PY driven by record Consumer revenue (+197%), and record Ingredients revenue (+26%) •    Gross margin of 56% improved $11m YoY. Product-related gross margin grew $37m YoY with a $23m FY 2021 Outlook •    Underlying total revenue (Product, Collaboration & Grants) expected to be in the $240m range. Reported total revenue expected to be around $400m when including potential strategic transactions  •    Phasing of Underlying total revenue expected to be 35% H1 and 65% H2 to reflect a continued quarter-on-quarter growth trajectory and the addition of new brands  •    Debt per end of 2020 of $171m reduced below $150m by March 1, 2021. Expected to reduce further to below $100m by Q3 2021  •    Strategic transactions expected to be mostly accretive to revenue and earnings resulting in positive full year adjusted EBITDA. The company may update its full year 2021 outlook following completion of the strategic transactions

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GeorgeL88

Mar 4, 2021
· POSITION CLOSED

12.06%

Position Return %

18.58

Price When Posted

2.24

Position Return

AMRS

Amyris Inc

13.59

0.29
2.22%
Current Price

Amyris (AMRYS) - Undervalued Synthetic Biology Company With Great Revenue Projections

bullish

Summary
•    Amyris is up over 400% over the past three months.
•    Amyris still offers tremendous upside value to be had when compared to its peers on P/S.
•    New opportunities in 2021 offer upside that's yet to be recognized by the market.

 

Valuation vs Peers
Amyris (AMRS) is a synthetic biology company that continues to offer upside despite its recent run-up. This is because they are still getting one of the worst P/S multiples in the industry. 
Amyris is getting the lowest multiple of any of its peers. Evogene (EVGN), Berkeley Lights (BLI), Twist Bioscience (TWST) and Codexis (CDXS) are all getting much higher multiples on revenue than Amyris. 

 

Ticker

Market Cap

Estimated 2021 Revenue

Market Cap/Revenue Multiple

AMRS

4130

400

10.32

EVGN

338

10

33.8

BLI

4730

150

31.53

TWST

7630

200

38.15

CDXS

1640

100

16.4


Future Prospects Summary
1.    Consumer Brands: Aiming to grow at 50%-100% YoY between now and 2025. They proved with Biossance and Pipette that the consumer brands can earn equity much faster than the multiple the market has set on clean beauty brands 
2.    Ingredients Business:  Amyris expects to bring 5-6 new molecules online in 2021. CEO John Melo has stated they expect around $160M of ingredients revenue this year. That is 100%+ growth YoY.
3.    Joint Ventures:  Their joint venture Novvi, a potential JV with Raizen, a monoclonal antibodies platform, and the scaling of a vitamins deal with Yifan and many other items are all on the horizon.


Summary from Q4 Earnings Call
 
https://investors.amyris.com/events-and-presentations?item=77

FY 2020 Highlights
•    Record sales revenue of $173m grew 13% versus the prior year. Record Product revenue of $112m
•    increased 72% versus PY driven by record Consumer revenue (+197%), and record Ingredients revenue (+26%)
•    Gross margin of 56% improved $11m YoY. Product-related gross margin grew $37m YoY with a $23m


FY 2021 Outlook
•    Underlying total revenue (Product, Collaboration & Grants) expected to be in the $240m range. Reported total revenue expected to be around $400m when including potential strategic transactions 
•    Phasing of Underlying total revenue expected to be 35% H1 and 65% H2 to reflect a continued quarter-on-quarter growth trajectory and the addition of new brands 
•    Debt per end of 2020 of $171m reduced below $150m by March 1, 2021. Expected to reduce further to below $100m by Q3 2021 
•    Strategic transactions expected to be mostly accretive to revenue and earnings resulting in positive full year adjusted EBITDA. The company may update its full year 2021 outlook following completion of the strategic transactions

 

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read-time
2 min

19.17

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

2-6 Months

Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC Filing
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Sentiment
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Other Catalyst

AMRS Channel

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