Balls of Steel - Updated DD - Price Target Increase - $CLF

So I know I'm a little late, but I finally got around to updating my financials to incorporate CLF's recent 10-Q filing - and I'm very surprised. My previous PT was $32.25, and after inputting their new data, the new PT is approximately $41!!!. I'd love to see that "analysis". How does a PT of $26 make sense when their NAV alone is $3.5 billion (27% of current market cap) Honestly, I'm shocked, but the numbers don't lie. DCF is the best way to put a market value on a company, and this is what the numbers are saying. ​ Updated Income Statement https://preview.redd.it/cxahi348mug71.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=56969bcdf83079a720b6955a2126e492f8510c9a ​ I.S. from 10-Q https://preview.redd.it/x126sd3coug71.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=61591d598d3e9f02b37dfea69d23f7fe53818a5a Assumptions: - Steel isn't like lumber and won't suddenly fall to normal or historical levels within a month. Lumber skyrocketed due to COVID causing a supply shortage, while demand remained steady. Steel prices have increased not only because of supply shortages & demand increases, but also because of global governmental & political catalysts. China will be announcing export tariffs within the next month before their building season starts in October. These taxes will range between 15-25%. - Steel prices will remain elevated until Late 2022 or Early 2023. - Q3 & Q4 financials will closely mimic Q2 - CLF will continue to pay down debt & return money to shareholders - CLF doesn't idle operations due to another covid variant. I think it's very unlikely since they are offering their employees $3,000 to get the shot. LG is a savage. ​ ​ CME HRC Futures ​ Weighted Averages for Pricing The analysis above is important because the surge in steel companies is almost solely due to market price increases. ​ From CLF's 10-k and their raised forward guidance: "The full-year revision is based on better-than-expected contractual renewals and the assumption that the US HRC index price averages $1,100 per net ton for the last nine months of the year. " As of 8/11/21 (my 32nd birthday btw), the weighted average price per ton according to the HRC futures index is $1756 for the rest of 2021, or in other words, a 56.7% increase over CLF's assumption that their forward guidance hinges on. Now, just because the weighted average of the futures prices is $1756, doesn't mean that CLF has locked in pricing or has contracts at that specific price. However, what it does show that prices have elevated to a greater level than they forecasted, and they are very likely realizing that tailwind. Positions: - $52k in CLF commons - $6.5k in calls. $15c 1/2022 & $12c 1/2023

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Original Post

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StudentforaLifetime

Aug 12, 2021

-12.49%

Change % Since Posting

24.89

Price When Posted

-3.11

Change Since Posting

CLF

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc

21.78

-0.08
-0.37%
Current Price

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Balls of Steel - Updated DD - Price Target Increase - $CLF

bullish

So I know I'm a little late, but I finally got around to updating my financials to incorporate CLF's recent 10-Q filing - and I'm very surprised.

My previous PT was $32.25, and after inputting their new data, the new PT is approximately $41!!!. I'd love to see that "analysis". How does a PT of $26 make sense when their NAV alone is $3.5 billion (27% of current market cap)

Honestly, I'm shocked, but the numbers don't lie. DCF is the best way to put a market value on a company, and this is what the numbers are saying.

Updated Income Statement



I.S. from 10-Q



Assumptions:

- Steel isn't like lumber and won't suddenly fall to normal or historical levels within a month. Lumber skyrocketed due to COVID causing a supply shortage, while demand remained steady. Steel prices have increased not only because of supply shortages & demand increases, but also because of global governmental & political catalysts. China will be announcing export tariffs within the next month before their building season starts in October. These taxes will range between 15-25%.

- Steel prices will remain elevated until Late 2022 or Early 2023.

- Q3 & Q4 financials will closely mimic Q2

- CLF will continue to pay down debt & return money to shareholders

- CLF doesn't idle operations due to another covid variant. I think it's very unlikely since they are offering their employees $3,000 to get the shot. LG is a savage.


&auto=webp&s=b7544e77fe22d53dbaa9b2b12115a4003077484a">CME HRC Futures


&auto=webp&s=0d84935417ecae6c6c821ecffe9aeae9fe331faa">Weighted Averages for Pricing

The analysis above is important because the surge in steel companies is almost solely due to market price increases.

From CLF's 10-k and their raised forward guidance:

"The full-year revision is based on better-than-expected contractual renewals and the assumption that the US HRC index price averages $1,100 per net ton for the last nine months of the year. "

As of 8/11/21 (my 32nd birthday btw), the weighted average price per ton according to the HRC futures index is $1756 for the rest of 2021, or in other words, a 56.7% increase over CLF's assumption that their forward guidance hinges on.

Now, just because the weighted average of the futures prices is $1756, doesn't mean that CLF has locked in pricing or has contracts at that specific price. However, what it does show that prices have elevated to a greater level than they forecasted, and they are very likely realizing that tailwind.

Positions:

- $52k in CLF commons

- $6.5k in calls. $15c 1/2022 & $12c 1/2023

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read-time
2 min

41.00

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

2-6 Months

Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC Filing
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Sentiment
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Other Catalyst

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