$CLF Prediction (Steel Purchaser and Salesman Here)

CLF EDIT 1: If any of you have to bitch about my long post or long responses to questions then maybe you should go play with your colored counting bears or post memes about AMC. Perhaps this kind of domestic and international business is just too much for your smoooooooth brain to handle. These are complex issues. Oh and thanks for reading. Much love! I am steel purchaser and salesman for a large nonprime steel sales/processing company. Been doing it for over 12 years Most of the mills in the US are now only equipped with Electric Arc Furnaces, These ONLY take SCRAP STEEL, which they melt down. There are a multitude of Reasons why many have went from BOF to EAF mills, but for us what is important is the following…. (NOTE: BOF- Basic Oxygen Furnace. Actually melting all minerals and produce from “scratch”.) BOFs are huge, expensive, time consuming and 'old school' NOTE: If you have never seen an EAF operate then click the following link and enjoy. No nothing in the video is going wrong, that is how its suppose to run..... insane..... EAF FURNACE @ 80 MW Currently there is a nationwide CONCERN growing in scrap haulers, steel salesman (me) but most of all, in the EAF mills. These concerns are about nationwide scrap supply. Like serious concerns. In fact steel prices have taken a very aggressive dip within the last 3 weeks and right now there is talk of scrap costs going up. (Seems impossible, but it suggests the mills are nervous about supply moving forward. SOOO why is this important? Well what happens if for some reason the EAF mills cannot get scrap they have ONE alternative…. They must use what the industry calls iron pellets. And how do you make those in large volume, large enough to sustain an entire mill? With an 'old school' BOF mill......... CLF (gonclaves) has been buying A LOT of the old BOFs in this country. People have laughed at him for it since they arent cutting edge anymore. Perhaps he sees something. And I believe he does. CLF could be in a position at one point where they are suppling their competitors pellets because their competitors cant fill their own orders. Nucor uses an EAF mill. They also have DRI plants which make these pellets. However most EAF mills do NOT have that capability. And even with Nucor they cannot make enough to run all of their operations. ALSO, MORE EAFs are currently being built, in my opinion flooding the market.... there is another selective pressure on scrap supply/cost. So my prediction is that scrap will get tight, maybe even experience the dreaded 'shortage' and the only way for them to melt more steel is buy the pellets from a BOF mill. And who owns most of the BOF mills in the country? Cleveland Cliffs..... My god is this a long play but the upside potential….. NO i did not look at charts, or do analysis, nor did i look at trends. (there are no trends.... we in the steel industry are in total uncharted waters.) Why uncharted? This is the highest steel costs have ever been. And not the highest in the country's history.... the highest they have been in the entire history of the steel industry from the day it was created.... ​ So my predication comes from 12 years buying and selling nonprime, working in a processing facility, tracking pricing and steel 'futures' while also analyzing the chemistry of certain items AND bidding on material on a weekly basis. Charts are great and all, but a chart/technicals cannot hold my jockstrap. Cant beat the info you get actually being on the battlefield. Please reach out if anyone has any questions!

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KneeCutsandBigButts

Nov 2, 2021

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$CLF Prediction (Steel Purchaser and Salesman Here)

bullish

CLF EDIT 1: If any of you have to bitch about my long post or long responses to questions then maybe you should go play with your colored counting bears or post memes about AMC. Perhaps this kind of domestic and international business is just too much for your smoooooooth brain to handle. These are complex issues. Oh and thanks for reading. Much love!

I am steel purchaser and salesman for a large nonprime steel sales/processing company. Been doing it for over 12 years

Most of the mills in the US are now only equipped with Electric Arc Furnaces, These ONLY take SCRAP STEEL, which they melt down. There are a multitude of Reasons why many have went from BOF to EAF mills, but for us what is important is the following…. (NOTE: BOF- Basic Oxygen Furnace. Actually melting all minerals and produce from “scratch”.) BOFs are huge, expensive, time consuming and 'old school'

NOTE: If you have never seen an EAF operate then click the following link and enjoy. No nothing in the video is going wrong, that is how its suppose to run..... insane.....

EAF FURNACE @ 80 MW

Currently there is a nationwide CONCERN growing in scrap haulers, steel salesman (me) but most of all, in the EAF mills. These concerns are about nationwide scrap supply. Like serious concerns. In fact steel prices have taken a very aggressive dip within the last 3 weeks and right now there is talk of scrap costs going up. (Seems impossible, but it suggests the mills are nervous about supply moving forward.

SOOO why is this important? Well what happens if for some reason the EAF mills cannot get scrap they have ONE alternative…. They must use what the industry calls iron pellets. And how do you make those in large volume, large enough to sustain an entire mill?

With an 'old school' BOF mill.........

CLF (gonclaves) has been buying A LOT of the old BOFs in this country. People have laughed at him for it since they arent cutting edge anymore. Perhaps he sees something. And I believe he does.

CLF could be in a position at one point where they are suppling their competitors pellets because their competitors cant fill their own orders.

Nucor uses an EAF mill. They also have DRI plants which make these pellets. However most EAF mills do NOT have that capability. And even with Nucor they cannot make enough to run all of their operations. ALSO, MORE EAFs are currently being built, in my opinion flooding the market.... there is another selective pressure on scrap supply/cost.

So my prediction is that scrap will get tight, maybe even experience the dreaded 'shortage' and the only way for them to melt more steel is buy the pellets from a BOF mill.

And who owns most of the BOF mills in the country? Cleveland Cliffs.....

My god is this a long play but the upside potential…..

NO i did not look at charts, or do analysis, nor did i look at trends. (there are no trends.... we in the steel industry are in total uncharted waters.) Why uncharted?

This is the highest steel costs have ever been. And not the highest in the country's history.... the highest they have been in the entire history of the steel industry from the day it was created....

​

So my predication comes from 12 years buying and selling nonprime, working in a processing facility, tracking pricing and steel 'futures' while also analyzing the chemistry of certain items AND bidding on material on a weekly basis.

Charts are great and all, but a chart/technicals cannot hold my jockstrap. Cant beat the info you get actually being on the battlefield.

Please reach out if anyone has any questions!

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read-time
3 min

30.00

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

1-3 Years

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