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Jul 21, 2021
[2 min Read]
TLDR: This is not financial advice. Just observations and my own thoughts you need to do your own due diligence. COVID Delta impact worst case is now priced in and overblown. Ontario recovered dramatically due to vaccine rates and US has more access to vaccines. $NCLH is oversold and has recovered strongly with each new positive news. As a boomer, too many of us can't wait to cruise again.
Disclosure I have take a long position in shares in NCLH at $23.9, personal PT of $30
I'm Canadian and looking at the impact of social distancing, masking and restrictions? They didn't blunt the spread of new variants. We had experienced massive increases in new cases because the general population will cheat and often not follow rules. However once vaccinations started reaching critical masses, even with delta, the new case counts have continued to decline.
I believe the impact of Delta on the US is therefore over hyped and there are strong opportunities for the US Gov to turn this around exponentially faster then Canada (took 3 months) because the US has better access to vaccines and are better at offering incentives (perks, mandating, lotteries).
Correlation between New cases over past 3 months and vaccination shown below
What is the opportunity? Looking at the statistics, spending is going to be around age 18-59 and therefore as they increasingly are fully vaccinated Delta and covid new case rates will become less and less of an impact.
Recovery stocks have become dramatically oversold based on Delta hype and therefore represent an opportunity once US vaccine rates improve enough in metro areas to destroy Covid new case counts.
$NCLH Norwegian Cruise lines has entered oversold and a bounce is underway. It has bounced with positive news over the past few months and is primed for an ever strong potential strong price recovery
Remember to do your own DD. Your money is your own, your thoughts are you own.