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“My favorite holding period is forever” - Warren Buffet
I’ve made and lost $200,000 twice in the last year, once on Gilead shares and a host of other random shit, and once on Canoo shares and a host of other random shit.
I took my losses (it was profit first, then I obviously doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down) on GILD because even if everyone on this planet dies, it will still be worth somewhere in the $60 range.
So I did the exact same thing 6 months later with GOEV shares and warrants (but this time I took some money out and bought a fast car), margin keeps calling but I have since learned about options, so I just don't pick up the phone and then replace my lost shares with options 1 month out (If you’ve been paying any attention these definitely almost always expire worthless because I have arthritis and can’t actually open my diamond hands after closing them)
On the one hand my massive profits from shares has evaporated, on the other hand, GOEV is going to pay for my future houses in Hawaii, Japan, and New Zealand so I’m not fucking selling and here’s why:
January: The year started off with the merger completion and MPDV had just been launched
February: Top shelf hopium sourced from Hyundai-Apple-Canoo rumors, Hyundai execs did some leaking and Apple got pissed. Deal thrown in the garbage.
March: Truck revealed (and leaked by retail shareholders first), bigly positive reception (I obviously didn’t take any profit after doubling down here) …. Cut to earnings where Tony Tequila tells everyone he told Hyundai to go fuck off, and the CFO responsible for the deal is shitcanned.
April: New management team onboarded, Tony Tequila takes the reins.
May: Manufacturing news coming soon, multiple CMs have been visited, retail shareholders tracking flight records.
June: Apple hires the ex-CEO of Canoo who just left to help them with their car program. The same ex-CEO who was formerly Canoo’s CTO and responsible for developing Canoo’s (licensable) platform. Apple also happened to mention they have no interest in developing their own car platform. Investor day happens, Oklahoma governor “Big Tall Homie” says he’s giving Canoo $300million in incentives to build a factory there. VDL Nedcar in Europe will also be the contract manufacturer making cars for the US market and elsewhere (Europe, China) until Canoo finishes building their own factory. Sedan prototype spotted by a preorder customer stopping by their California HQ. Imminent public release.
July: more on this at the bottom
That is a short recap of the Canoo timeline to date, now let me go deeper into why exactly I am bullish on Canoo.
The platform technology: Canoo has developed the first true steer-by-wire, driveable platform with integrated crash testing that is not only ADAS ready, but also has a composite leaf spring suspension and more.
Steer-by-wire: As we move towards the self-driving future of tomorrow (but for real when will tomorrow come? My calls are wondering, my margin callers are wondering, and my future wife is wondering)
Ok ok let me restart mfers
As society moves towards the self-driving future of tomorrow Steer-by-wire technology will be a NECESSITY and not a luxury. I’ve seen the inside of a computer and its all wires in there and I’m pretty sure electric cars are just computers on wheels, (Tesla is also developing their own steer-by-wire platform…)
This technology also allows for the steering wheel to be repositioned ANYWHERE inside the vehicle. You can drive this platform sitting on top of the rear wheels if you want to.
My mailman is a chill dude, but I feel bad for him. This mfer is driving his grandpa's USPS truck with garbage AC in the 115 degree heat we have here, and it's all because the steering wheel goes on the wrong side in those things. Canoo’s platform can solve that instantly.
Driveable platform: Race cars. Canoo is building them first, then others will build their own. I look forward to this future.
Battery module: Incorporated into the platform, batteries used can be easily upgraded as better batteries become available or new technology comes to fruition. The ECUs and battery management systems which are developed in house are also housed nearby.
I’ll let Canoo explain why this is the good shit “Our leaf spring suspension system flat-packs the springs and dampers below the height of the wheel for a low profile platform and more versatile cabin space.”
Crash Testing: 70% of a vehicle built on top of Canoo’s platform is enclosed inside the platform. The majority of the crash testing is incorporated into the platform design. Canoo has developed and patented technology to improve passenger safety in the event of a side impact collision and incorporated that into the platform as well.
What this means for vehicle development is that the development cycle from design sketch to concept to prototype to production vehicle is significantly faster than ANY competitors. Since last year alone, they have shown off the Multipurpose Delivery Vehicle, the Truck, and the Lifestyle vehicle. A driveable sedan prototype is currently at Canoo’s california facility (spotted recently) and will be unveiled shortly.
4 models, shown off in the span of 1 year, with more to come. Canoo will have an entire lineup of electric cars on production lines before some legacy automakers have a few developed and ready to go using dated factories, body styling, and technology.
BMW/MINI licensing Canoo platform rumors
MINI unveiled the Urbanaut concept recently, this is their vision of the future. It has multiple similarities to Canoo’s Lifestyle Vehicle - the open concept, the driver's seat that faces both ways, and most importantly, a Steer-by-wire system.
Although a swivel chair will never make it to production, this was MINI’s concept of what the drivers seat of the future will be, something with seating on both sides and the ability to create an enclosed “loft” type space. Canoo currently has a driver and front passenger seat with jump seats for use when not in motion as standard on the Adventure and Premium trim levels.
How is it possible to know that the MINI Urbanaut is using steer-by-wire? The design concept has a feature that turns the front dash into a daybed of sorts (the windshield also pops open). Part of this transformation is the folding and tucking away of the steering wheel, which would not be possible otherwise.
Lastly w.r.t. the Urbanaut, the wheelbase is the same as Canoo’s LV.
Next up is a recent job posting on Canoo’s breezy.hr - “eDrive calibration manager”
eDrive is trademarked by BMW. It is repeated multiple times over in the job listing, including “The position oversees design and release of each component and must have familiarity with current eDrive systems to maintain a level of competitiveness in target setting.“
Tony Tequila’s plane recently flew to Spartanburg, SC --- closeby to BMW’s largest production facility and the only one in the US.
It’s just a matter of time before the first very large company licenses the Canoo platform, but after that the floodgates will open. The time to develop advantage is something no competitor will be able to compete with. While competitors have all been making square shaped electric cars try to fit into circular holes, Canoo has been steady stacking triangles through the triangle hole.
Neither is management, Tony Tequila took Solera to the moon. He knows how to raise cash without doing share offerings.
One more thing! No share offerings, which may end up being a problem for the (ortex estimated) 40% of the FF currently shorted and very very little volume thanks to diamond handed conservative bull retails who bought during the SPAC days and post merger.
Tl;dr “My favorite holding period is forever” - Warren Buffet, a conservative bull ---> I’m never fucking selling unless margin caller makes me.