[DD] Recovery is not priced in. $SQ, $FB, $GOOGL, $V, $PYPL, $TTD, $SBUX, $AMZN, $ROKU

So this week we had multiple earnings that in my -30% ytd opinion (fucking tesla), revealed a shit ton about macroeconomics. Study #1 Coca Cola, Chipotle & Dominos Pizza All of these boys had earnings this week. Coca cola beat revenue by a BILLION. A billion. For reference, Coke makes 9 billion a quarter. Restaurants are booming. Inflation has not harmed as much as the media feared. (ex. Oh no big mac costs 30 dollars I won't eat out anymore) CMG popped 8% on earnings then ran another 8%. Dominos did 14%. The pace of recovery is surprising wallstreet and stocks are responding. You know who directly benefits from booming sales? Payment processors. $SQ, $V, $PYPL Square in particular has been punished for buying imaginary money with their own money. Long runway when they report unprecedented growth in their core business, CashApp and payment processing. Study #2 Snapchat & Twitter It is not surprising that when demand is robust, businesses are spending a ton to capture as much of that demand as possible. Snapchat announced today that they expect to grow 50% YOY. Fucking nuts. Tik Tok is also growing massively but they are not public. Twitter says their ad revenue is growing literally 7x in certain cities. You fucking know it that google and facebook have good news too. $ROKU and $TTD in particular is sitting way way below ATH. If my retarded ass can deduce this, you know big boys are already on it. Be ware that Fed speaks next week. Volatility should be expected. Disclosure: Author is FOMOing bigly into earning calls tomorrow and typing this up to hype himself up. This may be a portfolio eulogy. Going ham into 5~10% otm calls no more than 1 month to expiration. The larger the pre-earning run, the less likely author will hold calls into actual earning report. Upcoming earnings Visa ($V) 7/27 - payment processing leeching 2% every transaction Google ($GOOGL) 7/27 - ad play Starbucks ($SBUX) 7/27 - recovery sales surprise Paypal ($PYPL) 7/28 - payment processer leech Facebook ($FB) 7/28 - ad play Shopify ($SHOP) 7/28 - e commerce & recovery spending Amazon ($amzn) 7/29 - e commerce & ad play & cloud growth that comes with any growth & below ATH Square ($SQ) 8/5 - payment processor leech & recovery surprise & below ATH TradeDesk ($TTD) 8/5 - ad play & below ATH

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Original Post

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Always_Excited

Jul 26, 2021

-5.19%

Change % Since Posting

3679.90

Price When Posted

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Change Since Posting

AMZN

Amazon.com Inc.

3488.92

13.13
0.38%
Current Price

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[DD] Recovery is not priced in. $SQ, $FB, $GOOGL, $V, $PYPL, $TTD, $SBUX, $AMZN, $ROKU

bullish

So this week we had multiple earnings that in my -30% ytd opinion (fucking tesla), revealed a shit ton about macroeconomics.

Study #1 Coca Cola, Chipotle & Dominos Pizza

All of these boys had earnings this week.

Coca cola beat revenue by a BILLION. A billion. For reference, Coke makes 9 billion a quarter. Restaurants are booming. Inflation has not harmed as much as the media feared. (ex. Oh no big mac costs 30 dollars I won't eat out anymore)

CMG popped 8% on earnings then ran another 8%. Dominos did 14%. The pace of recovery is surprising wallstreet and stocks are responding. You know who directly benefits from booming sales? Payment processors. $SQ, $V, $PYPL

Square in particular has been punished for buying imaginary money with their own money. Long runway when they report unprecedented growth in their core business, CashApp and payment processing.

Study #2 Snapchat & Twitter

It is not surprising that when demand is robust, businesses are spending a ton to capture as much of that demand as possible. Snapchat announced today that they expect to grow 50% YOY. Fucking nuts. Tik Tok is also growing massively but they are not public. Twitter says their ad revenue is growing literally 7x in certain cities. You fucking know it that google and facebook have good news too. $ROKU and $TTD in particular is sitting way way below ATH.

If my retarded ass can deduce this, you know big boys are already on it.

Be ware that Fed speaks next week. Volatility should be expected.

Disclosure: Author is FOMOing bigly into earning calls tomorrow and typing this up to hype himself up. This may be a portfolio eulogy. Going ham into 5~10% otm calls no more than 1 month to expiration. The larger the pre-earning run, the less likely author will hold calls into actual earning report.

Upcoming earnings

  • Visa ($V) 7/27 - payment processing leeching 2% every transaction
  • Google ($GOOGL) 7/27 - ad play
  • Starbucks ($SBUX) 7/27 - recovery sales surprise

  • Paypal ($PYPL) 7/28 - payment processer leech

  • Facebook ($FB) 7/28 - ad play

  • Shopify ($SHOP) 7/28 - e commerce & recovery spending

  • Amazon ($amzn) 7/29 - e commerce & ad play & cloud growth that comes with any growth & below ATH

  • Square ($SQ) 8/5 - payment processor leech & recovery surprise & below ATH

  • TradeDesk ($TTD) 8/5 - ad play & below ATH

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read-time
1 min

4047.89

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

1-2 Weeks

Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC Filing
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