FB Earnings are Today After Market Close. Place Your Bets!

TL;DR: 04/29 155P at $2.75 or less 04/29 157.5P at $3.00 or less 04/29 160P at $3.25 or less Here's a chart showing options volume and open interest yesterday for all the 04/29 puts on FB. I do want to point out the increased activity around $150P-$160P. That appears to be what is being priced in by institutional participants. ​ https://preview.redd.it/frkwljfg72w81.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=6de20bdc7e5c5f526934b9e88f5ff2fbee2d88ac The vast majority of the open interest looks to be at the $150 strike, while most of the hedging activity looks to be between $150 and $160 Most of the open interest is pricing in a drop. Surprisingly someone has been buying a ton of 04/29 $120P. Maybe speculative apes? Over the last couple days in the run up to earnings, IV has gone from 40% to 160%, and will likely continue to 200% by market close. https://preview.redd.it/gr319apt72w81.png?width=1101&format=png&auto=webp&s=a83af45d80fd23c708b542ad2cfefb60670b30fc ​ FB is also quite far from its delta neutral (Green line). Most recently, delta neutral has been a point of resistance. That may continue to be true for foreseeable future. Notably, the increased put buying has brought delta neutral down. Source: https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FB ​ https://preview.redd.it/eaws74gx72w81.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d07b921737ec12eec7fc14f2749bb28741b7234 Current ATM options show the probable range after market close of $166 - $190.50. I'm anticipating a drop, but still want to make money, so I need to make sure the options contracts I buy are profitable at the $150 mark, which currently represents a 16% decrease from yesterday's close. It's possible all this dropping is priced in from the previous quarter. It's also possible that Meta's headwinds have accelerated and further future statements will paint a more dire picture of the company. Remember that the cost of IV crush will be massive. So you need to pick a strike price that you reasonably expect will expire ITM. So with that being said, these are the positions I intend to open before market close: 04/29 155P at $2.75 or less 04/29 157.5P at $3.00 or less 04/29 160P at $3.25 or less Unclear to what point I can get fills at these prices, but I'm going to try.

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FB Earnings are Today After Market Close. Place Your Bets!

Apr 27, 2022

bearish

general Analysis

[2 min Read]

TL;DR:

  • 04/29 155P at $2.75 or less
  • 04/29 157.5P at $3.00 or less
  • 04/29 160P at $3.25 or less

Here's a chart showing options volume and open interest yesterday for all the 04/29 puts on FB. I do want to point out the increased activity around $150P-$160P. That appears to be what is being priced in by institutional participants.



The vast majority of the open interest looks to be at the $150 strike, while most of the hedging activity looks to be between $150 and $160

Most of the open interest is pricing in a drop. Surprisingly someone has been buying a ton of 04/29 $120P. Maybe speculative apes?

Over the last couple days in the run up to earnings, IV has gone from 40% to 160%, and will likely continue to 200% by market close.



FB is also quite far from its delta neutral (Green line). Most recently, delta neutral has been a point of resistance. That may continue to be true for foreseeable future. Notably, the increased put buying has brought delta neutral down. Source: https://options.hardyrekshin.com/#FB



Current ATM options show the probable range after market close of $166 - $190.50.

I'm anticipating a drop, but still want to make money, so I need to make sure the options contracts I buy are profitable at the $150 mark, which currently represents a 16% decrease from yesterday's close. It's possible all this dropping is priced in from the previous quarter. It's also possible that Meta's headwinds have accelerated and further future statements will paint a more dire picture of the company.

Remember that the cost of IV crush will be massive. So you need to pick a strike price that you reasonably expect will expire ITM.

So with that being said, these are the positions I intend to open before market close:

  • 04/29 155P at $2.75 or less
  • 04/29 157.5P at $3.00 or less
  • 04/29 160P at $3.25 or less

Unclear to what point I can get fills at these prices, but I'm going to try.

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FB

Meta Platforms, Inc.

196.64

0.99
0.51%

Return

-8.67%
Change % Since Posting
-15.69
Change Since Posting
180.95
Price When Posted

Metrics

160.00
Target Price
8/ 10
Confidence
< 1 Week
Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC
Filing
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