Green Energy? Stand Down!

Athabasca Oil (ATH TSX) "With the successful debt refinancing now behind them, attention should turn to paying down their existing debt and the ability to return meaningful capital back to shareholders in late 2022. With $2.4B in tax losses in an environment where the energy sector at large is at or nearing cash taxability we think ~$500M of value is reasonable for these which means the company ex-tax losses is trading at only 1.5x free cash flow.  Despite new hedges somewhat capping partial upside capture from the oil price we still see the company trading at 2.5x/1.9x EV/CF at US$70/80 offering potential upside of 85 per cent/149 per cent upside at US$70/US$80 WTI."  - Eric Nuttall

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Green Energy? Stand Down!

bullish

Athabasca Oil (ATH TSX)

"With the successful debt refinancing now behind them, attention should turn to paying down their existing debt and the ability to return meaningful capital back to shareholders in late 2022. With $2.4B in tax losses in an environment where the energy sector at large is at or nearing cash taxability we think ~$500M of value is reasonable for these which means the company ex-tax losses is trading at only 1.5x free cash flow. 

Despite new hedges somewhat capping partial upside capture from the oil price we still see the company trading at 2.5x/1.9x EV/CF at US$70/80 offering potential upside of 85 per cent/149 per cent upside at US$70/US$80 WTI." 

- Eric Nuttall

 

 

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1.81

Target Price

8/ 10

Confidence

6-12 Months

Timeframe
Share
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC Filing
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Other Catalyst

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