Thanks to our friends at investorplace we have got all the info you need. So here is a summary of their best bits on their article about Hyliion (HYLN), the company that wants to break through the Class 8 Truck industry with their disruptive technologies.
So HYLN had a pretty dramatic start to its life on Wall Street as a SPAC under Tortoise Acquisition. It went from $15 to $50 in just 4 months and has since come crashing back down since the marketing team has been quiet while they have been creating what might be the ticket to the moon. However, the recent news is only the beginning of its climb back to $50 and and potentially even $200+ in the next few years. (That’s right a 15x is probably on the lower side from here).
Hyliion just announced a next-generation battery module, which broadly implies that its RNG technology is making progress. Further, it implies Hyliion’s electric powertrains have significant advantages over legacy EV powertrains.
So Hyliion is a RNG/Electric hybrid. I’ll make this quick. On the upcoming Hypertruck ERX, the on board battery is recharged by the usage of RNG as a fuel source. RNG has many benefits and many reasons why it’s better than all current available electric and/or diesel vehicles. Check em out:
- RNG is carbon net negative (uses methane)
- Provides similar range to diesel trucks
- 729 RNG refuelling stations exist over North America already. No expensive investments needed to get this puppy rolling (unlike Nikola, Hyliion trucks do more than just roll downhill).
- Costs? Current RNG prices hover around $1 per diesel gallon equivalent, while hydrogen and electricity prices — though steadily falling — still sit staunchly north of $5. In an industry focused on minimising costs, 80% cheaper sounds pretty damn alluring, correct?
Thus, by being a clean energy source with best range, the lowest costs and an already established infrastructure, RNG is the only immediately usable technology to decarbonize trucking fleets. That’s why Deloitte projects that, by 2026, about 80% of all alternative drive systems in heavy duty trucks will be based on natural gas
- ”Just look at the numbers here. Hyliion consistently outperforms rivals Nikola and Tesla. The Hypertruck ERX sports the following:
- -Driving range of 1,300 miles, ~70% more than Nikola’s hydrogen truck (750 miles) and about 160% more than Tesla’s semi-truck (500 miles).
- -A payload capacity of 53,000 pounds, ~10% more than Nikola (48,000 pounds) and ~20% more than Tesla (43,000 pounds). –
- A full recharge time of just 10 minutes, the same as Nikola’s hydrogen truck and one-third that of Tesla’s semi-truck. -0-to-60 miles-per-hour pick-up time of 20 seconds, on par with Tesla’s semitruck and 10 seconds shorter than Nikola’s hydrogen truck.”
The new battery that from HYLN ”this improved battery module is capable of up to 5X as much cycle life as a conventional EV battery, can be recharged in under 8 minutes, and allows for more than a 40% improvement in cooling compared to previous systems (which allows for higher charge and longer sustained power output). It’s a powerful solution that could be the key to waking up investor interest in Hyliion stock.”
Okay now for the share price forecast:
- 7million heavy duty vehicles sold annually in the US. Imagine 30% of these vehicles are powered by alternate fuels/electric. = 500,000 a year
- Let’s give HYLN a modest 20% of the market share (this could EASILY be more considering it’s the best option for costs and efficiency and that new Biden guy said the government is turning its fleet of vehicles green).
- The company’s internal financials imply average annual revenue per powertrain of over $60,000, while EBITDA margins at scale should rise toward 35%.
- Under those assumptions, Hyliion should clear $2 billion in EBITDA in 2030.
- High quality truck components suppliers can fetch a 15X EBITDA multiple. That implies a potential future enterprise value for Hyliion of $30-plus billion, versus a market cap of ~$3 billion today.
- HYLIION can easily 10x from here but it can easily easily break the market and become its biggest player. So expect multiples of 10x!!