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Oct 11, 2021
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In 2021 Q2, Tesla made $4800 gaap earnings per EV delivered. Costs of batteries are coming down and will continue to do so throughout the decade (will cost less for suppliers as they scale, also 4680 batteries are about cost efficiency). Manufacturing is becoming more efficient as they scale (giga casts a big part of that). Shipping logistics became more efficient from transitioning the main export hub to Giga Shanghai. Shipping will become even less cost intensive as Giga Berlin and Giga Texas open up (no more shipping EVs on boats). If Tesla can manage $7000 gaap earnings per EV next year (I expect more) while they ramp up their new factories, and if they deliver 1.5M EVs. That's 7000*1.5M = $10.5B in gaap earnings for 2022. At a 100 P/E that's $1050/share on EVs alone.
For comparison sake. GM made $4300 gaap earnings per car sold. And F made $1200 gaap earnings per EV in Q2. If it's not painfully obvious by now, Tesla's EV business is much more profitable that GM and F's business models for selling ICE cars.
They're also ramping up their solar and energy storage business.
"There's years of growth priced in" will be the next piece of FUD to die. We'll bury it next to "they're only profitable because of regulatory credits."