Long $AMD - My Next Potential 10X AMD Trade

Hi fellow apes, Long time no see. Some of you may remember me from my two insane $AMD trades last year, both of which went up 1000%.I have one of those for you today. This is a multi-pronged thesis for why I went long on $AMD at these levels, which I will summarize in the following points : -- Macro Picture -- The market has just experienced a major correction which lasted several months and was fueled by the fed tightening monetary policy. I believe the correction is over and the market has now gotten used to a more hawkish fed. The fed has gotten more Hawkish due to inflation, which I believe will begin stabilizing and even subsiding over the next several quarters. Primarily because : 1- Consumer demand and spending has been declining for two months and will continue to do so IMO, due to a moderation of govt spending bills, stimulus money running out and savings declining. 2- Because inflation of energy prices due to the Russian-Ukaranian war has mostly already been baked in since March. Slowing inflation can give leeway to the fed to turn less hawkish, which can fuel a major bull market rally. -- AMD's Fundamental Picture -- AMD's price has been cut by nearly half since its major peak last year at around ~$160. Nothing fundamental about AMD's business has changed. The company even raised its growth expectations for 2022 in its last earnings call. AMD is expected to grow its revenue by no less than 60% by the end of the year and more than double its profit. In my opinion demand for semiconductors continues to be very strong and will remain so for the remainder of the year. AMD successfully completed its acquisition of XLNX late last year, which strengthens its competitive position in the server business, and area where the company has been kicking ass and taking record breaking market share from Intel. In fact more than a quarter of all x86 CPUs sold today are AMD, the highest market share in the history of the company. The company is also expected to release the first ever 5nm x86 "Zen 4" CPUs this year, which will extend its manufacturing process lead vs Intel and allow it capture even more market share and grow profitability and margins. -- AMD's Technical Picture -- In my opinion there's a high likelihood that AMD has bottomed here at the ~$90 level. Here's why : - We tagged the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 2018. The last time this happened AMD went up from $10 to $30 in six months. - We hit a double bottom on the daily RSI after a major peak. The last time this happened was Dec 2018 and AMD went up by 60% the following 6 weeks. - AMD has been on a very strong bullish trend since 2016. The stock just entered the most attractive "gray" buy zone on my hand drawn pitchfork channel. This has only happened 3 times in the last 5 years. Following those 3 instances AMD went up by 38%, 240% & 66% respectively. https://preview.redd.it/md7sngogsnt81.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1ad41472f6cf7a1dc7d0c907061ac0e8b82bb58 This DD encompasses my opinions and educated guesses about the macroeconomic and monetary environments for this year which may or may not be accurate.I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. Manage your own risk. Disclosure : I am long AMD Jan 2023 $150 call options @ $3.5 per contract.

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Long $AMD - My Next Potential 10X AMD Trade

bullish

Hi fellow apes,

Long time no see.

Some of you may remember me from my two insane $AMD trades last year, both of which went up 1000%.I have one of those for you today.

This is a multi-pronged thesis for why I went long on $AMD at these levels, which I will summarize in the following points :

-- Macro Picture --

The market has just experienced a major correction which lasted several months and was fueled by the fed tightening monetary policy. I believe the correction is over and the market has now gotten used to a more hawkish fed.

The fed has gotten more Hawkish due to inflation, which I believe will begin stabilizing and even subsiding over the next several quarters. Primarily because :

1- Consumer demand and spending has been declining for two months and will continue to do so IMO, due to a moderation of govt spending bills, stimulus money running out and savings declining.

2- Because inflation of energy prices due to the Russian-Ukaranian war has mostly already been baked in since March.

Slowing inflation can give leeway to the fed to turn less hawkish, which can fuel a major bull market rally.

-- AMD's Fundamental Picture --

AMD's price has been cut by nearly half since its major peak last year at around ~$160. Nothing fundamental about AMD's business has changed. The company even raised its growth expectations for 2022 in its last earnings call. AMD is expected to grow its revenue by no less than 60% by the end of the year and more than double its profit.

In my opinion demand for semiconductors continues to be very strong and will remain so for the remainder of the year. AMD successfully completed its acquisition of XLNX late last year, which strengthens its competitive position in the server business, and area where the company has been kicking ass and taking record breaking market share from Intel. In fact more than a quarter of all x86 CPUs sold today are AMD, the highest market share in the history of the company.

The company is also expected to release the first ever 5nm x86 "Zen 4" CPUs this year, which will extend its manufacturing process lead vs Intel and allow it capture even more market share and grow profitability and margins.

-- AMD's Technical Picture --

In my opinion there's a high likelihood that AMD has bottomed here at the ~$90 level. Here's why :

- We tagged the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 2018. The last time this happened AMD went up from $10 to $30 in six months.

- We hit a double bottom on the daily RSI after a major peak. The last time this happened was Dec 2018 and AMD went up by 60% the following 6 weeks.

- AMD has been on a very strong bullish trend since 2016. The stock just entered the most attractive "gray" buy zone on my hand drawn pitchfork channel. This has only happened 3 times in the last 5 years. Following those 3 instances AMD went up by 38%, 240% & 66% respectively.



This DD encompasses my opinions and educated guesses about the macroeconomic and monetary environments for this year which may or may not be accurate.I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. Manage your own risk.

Disclosure : I am long AMD Jan 2023 $150 call options @ $3.5 per contract.

read-time
3 min
150.00
Target Price
9/ 10
Confidence
1-3 Years
Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC
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