Lucid Motors Investment Research

About the Company Lucid Motors Inc. is an American automotive company specializing in electric vehicles, was founded in 2007 and is based in California. The company deeply focuses on energy storage and original equipment manufacturing. Furthermore, Lucid Motors targets its intent to develop all-electric, high-performance luxury vehicles. On November 29, 2016, state and company officials announced the planned construction of Lucid’s US$700 million manufacturing plant in Arizona, which was projected to employ up to 2,000 workers by the mid-2020s, initially building 20,000 cars and expanding up to 130,000 cars per years. On April 5, 2019, Lucid Motors completed a fund of over $1 billion with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. The fund will be used in the development of the Lucid Air model and plant construction. In February 2021, Lucid Motors announced a deal valued at $11.75 billion to merge with Churchill Capital Corp IV.  Lucid was known for battery technology and started its car development in 2014. In December 2016, Lucid Motors unveiled the Lucid Air fully electric car and expected the production in spring 2021. Lucid Motors has agreed with Mobileye, an Israeli subsidiary of Intel that develops self-driving cars and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), to use their EyeQ4 chips and 8 cameras for driver-assist features. Currently, Lucid is collaborating with Amazon, allowing drivers to use voice assistance while driving. In September 2020, Lucid unveiled an electric SUV concept called Project Gravity with little information published. Comparison According to their presentation, lucid provided a valuation comparison. Its 2022 value-to-sales multiple is 5.3x, which looks attractive compared with space’s median multiple of 10.3x. In comparison, Nio’s and XPeng’s multiplies are 10.3x and 6.8x, respectively. Lucid Motors Outlook Lucid Motors plans to sell 20,157 units in 2022, and forecasts to deliver 251,281 units in 2026, according to a recent presentation from Lucid. Furthermore, the company also expects to generate sales of $2.2 billion in 2022 (next year) and forecasts its sales growing by 149% in 2023 and 79% in 2024. It also expects to turn EBITDA- and free cash flow-positive in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Policy Support  The federal government currently offers up to $7,500 in tax credits for consumers who purchase an electric plug-in vehicle. The Biden office supports the stricter restrictions on fuel emissions standards in California, which benefit the EV markers, like Lucid Motors. With supportive policies, Lucid Motors will have a great outlook in the future. Technical Analysis Position cost distribution: Profit: 27.48% Pressure: 23.00 Average: 21.88 Support: 18.98 Related ETF: SPAK: ETF Series Solutions Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived ETF, 3.3% SFYF: Tidal Etf Trust Sofi Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived Etf, 2.46% GVIP: Goldman Sachs ETF Trust 0.79% SPXZ: MORGAN CREEK – EXOS SPAC ORIGINATED ETF, 0.58% Interpretation of Indicators: oversold, positive signal, the trend is relatively optimistic KDJ: serious oversold OSC: serious oversold CCI: oversold RSI(6): oversold RSI(12) oversold VR oversold WMSR oversold Short selling ratio and open interest: 2021/01/15: 0.49%, 1,272,463 2021/01/29: 2.16%, 5,598,468 2021/02/12: 1.75%, 4,515,984 2021/02/26: 5.19%, 13,435,362 2021/03/15: 5.36%, 13,856638 2021/03/31: 12.66%, 32,752,303 Shareholding type: Hedge fund manager/CTA: 30.33% Individual/insiders: 20% Traditional investment manager: 10.68% Date No. of institutes No. of shares Shareholding ratio Shares changed 2020/12/31 173 116.56M 45.05% +1.42M 2020/9/30 148 115.14M 44.50% +56.59M 2020/6/30 56 58.55M 22.63% Constant Conclusion Lucid Motors looks like a good long-term investment based on the EV market’s outlook. By 2030, the company plans to produce over 500,000 units each year. the Biden administration’s policies are also beneficial to boost the EV space. In short term, technical analysis indicates that investors should wait a bit. Compared to Tesla and Nio, Lucid Motors is still in its early stage, but it has the potential to subvert market perception in the long run.  

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TOTHEMOON123

Apr 22, 2021
· POSITION CLOSED

26.60%

Position Return %

19.66

Price When Posted

5.23

Position Return

CCIV

Churchill Capital Corp IV - Class A

24.33

0.08
0.33%
Current Price

Lucid Motors Investment Research

bullish

About the Company

Lucid Motors Inc. is an American automotive company specializing in electric vehicles, was founded in 2007 and is based in California. The company deeply focuses on energy storage and original equipment manufacturing. Furthermore, Lucid Motors targets its intent to develop all-electric, high-performance luxury vehicles.

On November 29, 2016, state and company officials announced the planned construction of Lucid’s US$700 million manufacturing plant in Arizona, which was projected to employ up to 2,000 workers by the mid-2020s, initially building 20,000 cars and expanding up to 130,000 cars per years. On April 5, 2019, Lucid Motors completed a fund of over $1 billion with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. The fund will be used in the development of the Lucid Air model and plant construction. In February 2021, Lucid Motors announced a deal valued at $11.75 billion to merge with Churchill Capital Corp IV.

 Lucid was known for battery technology and started its car development in 2014. In December 2016, Lucid Motors unveiled the Lucid Air fully electric car and expected the production in spring 2021. Lucid Motors has agreed with Mobileye, an Israeli subsidiary of Intel that develops self-driving cars and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), to use their EyeQ4 chips and 8 cameras for driver-assist features. Currently, Lucid is collaborating with Amazon, allowing drivers to use voice assistance while driving. In September 2020, Lucid unveiled an electric SUV concept called Project Gravity with little information published.

 

Comparison

According to their presentation, lucid provided a valuation comparison. Its 2022 value-to-sales multiple is 5.3x, which looks attractive compared with space’s median multiple of 10.3x. In comparison, Nio’s and XPeng’s multiplies are 10.3x and 6.8x, respectively.

 

Lucid Motors Outlook

Lucid Motors plans to sell 20,157 units in 2022, and forecasts to deliver 251,281 units in 2026, according to a recent presentation from Lucid. Furthermore, the company also expects to generate sales of $2.2 billion in 2022 (next year) and forecasts its sales growing by 149% in 2023 and 79% in 2024. It also expects to turn EBITDA- and free cash flow-positive in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

 

Policy Support 

The federal government currently offers up to $7,500 in tax credits for consumers who purchase an electric plug-in vehicle. The Biden office supports the stricter restrictions on fuel emissions standards in California, which benefit the EV markers, like Lucid Motors. With supportive policies, Lucid Motors will have a great outlook in the future.

 

Technical Analysis

  • Position cost distribution:
    • Profit: 27.48%
    • Pressure: 23.00
    • Average: 21.88
    • Support: 18.98
  • Related ETF:
    • SPAK: ETF Series Solutions Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived ETF, 3.3%
    • SFYF: Tidal Etf Trust Sofi Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived Etf, 2.46%
    • GVIP: Goldman Sachs ETF Trust 0.79%
    • SPXZ: MORGAN CREEK – EXOS SPAC ORIGINATED ETF, 0.58%
  • Interpretation of Indicators: oversold, positive signal, the trend is relatively optimistic
    • KDJ: serious oversold
    • OSC: serious oversold
    • CCI: oversold
    • RSI(6): oversold
    • RSI(12) oversold
    • VR oversold
    • WMSR oversold
  • Short selling ratio and open interest:
    • 2021/01/15: 0.49%, 1,272,463
    • 2021/01/29: 2.16%, 5,598,468
    • 2021/02/12: 1.75%, 4,515,984
    • 2021/02/26: 5.19%, 13,435,362
    • 2021/03/15: 5.36%, 13,856638
    • 2021/03/31: 12.66%, 32,752,303
  • Shareholding type:
    • Hedge fund manager/CTA: 30.33%
    • Individual/insiders: 20%
    • Traditional investment manager: 10.68%

Date

No. of institutes

No. of shares

Shareholding ratio

Shares changed

2020/12/31

173

116.56M

45.05%

+1.42M

2020/9/30

148

115.14M

44.50%

+56.59M

2020/6/30

56

58.55M

22.63%

Constant

 

Conclusion

Lucid Motors looks like a good long-term investment based on the EV market’s outlook. By 2030, the company plans to produce over 500,000 units each year. the Biden administration’s policies are also beneficial to boost the EV space. In short term, technical analysis indicates that investors should wait a bit. Compared to Tesla and Nio, Lucid Motors is still in its early stage, but it has the potential to subvert market perception in the long run.  

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