About the Company

Lucid Motors Inc. is an American automotive company specializing in electric vehicles, was founded in 2007 and is based in California. The company deeply focuses on energy storage and original equipment manufacturing. Furthermore, Lucid Motors targets its intent to develop all-electric, high-performance luxury vehicles.

On November 29, 2016, state and company officials announced the planned construction of Lucid’s US$700 million manufacturing plant in Arizona, which was projected to employ up to 2,000 workers by the mid-2020s, initially building 20,000 cars and expanding up to 130,000 cars per years. On April 5, 2019, Lucid Motors completed a fund of over $1 billion with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. The fund will be used in the development of the Lucid Air model and plant construction. In February 2021, Lucid Motors announced a deal valued at $11.75 billion to merge with Churchill Capital Corp IV.

Lucid was known for battery technology and started its car development in 2014. In December 2016, Lucid Motors unveiled the Lucid Air fully electric car and expected the production in spring 2021. Lucid Motors has agreed with Mobileye, an Israeli subsidiary of Intel that develops self-driving cars and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), to use their EyeQ4 chips and 8 cameras for driver-assist features. Currently, Lucid is collaborating with Amazon, allowing drivers to use voice assistance while driving. In September 2020, Lucid unveiled an electric SUV concept called Project Gravity with little information published.

Comparison

According to their presentation, lucid provided a valuation comparison. Its 2022 value-to-sales multiple is 5.3x, which looks attractive compared with space’s median multiple of 10.3x. In comparison, Nio’s and XPeng’s multiplies are 10.3x and 6.8x, respectively.

Lucid Motors Outlook

Lucid Motors plans to sell 20,157 units in 2022, and forecasts to deliver 251,281 units in 2026, according to a recent presentation from Lucid. Furthermore, the company also expects to generate sales of $2.2 billion in 2022 (next year) and forecasts its sales growing by 149% in 2023 and 79% in 2024. It also expects to turn EBITDA- and free cash flow-positive in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Policy Support

The federal government currently offers up to $7,500 in tax credits for consumers who purchase an electric plug-in vehicle. The Biden office supports the stricter restrictions on fuel emissions standards in California, which benefit the EV markers, like Lucid Motors. With supportive policies, Lucid Motors will have a great outlook in the future.

Technical Analysis

Position cost distribution:
- Profit: 27.48%
- Pressure: 23.00
- Average: 21.88
- Support: 18.98
Related ETF:
- SPAK: ETF Series Solutions Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived ETF, 3.3%
- SFYF: Tidal Etf Trust Sofi Defiance Next Gen Spac Derived Etf, 2.46%
- GVIP: Goldman Sachs ETF Trust 0.79%
- SPXZ: MORGAN CREEK – EXOS SPAC ORIGINATED ETF, 0.58%
Interpretation of Indicators: oversold, positive signal, the trend is relatively optimistic
- KDJ: serious oversold
- OSC: serious oversold
- CCI: oversold
- RSI(6): oversold
- RSI(12) oversold
- VR oversold
- WMSR oversold
Short selling ratio and open interest:
- 2021/01/15: 0.49%, 1,272,463
- 2021/01/29: 2.16%, 5,598,468
- 2021/02/12: 1.75%, 4,515,984
- 2021/02/26: 5.19%, 13,435,362
- 2021/03/15: 5.36%, 13,856638
- 2021/03/31: 12.66%, 32,752,303
Shareholding type:
- Hedge fund manager/CTA: 30.33%
- Individual/insiders: 20%
- Traditional investment manager: 10.68%

Date	No. of institutes	No. of shares	Shareholding ratio	Shares changed
2020/12/31	173	116.56M	45.05%	+1.42M
2020/9/30	148	115.14M	44.50%	+56.59M
2020/6/30	56	58.55M	22.63%	Constant

Conclusion

Lucid Motors looks like a good long-term investment based on the EV market’s outlook. By 2030, the company plans to produce over 500,000 units each year. the Biden administration’s policies are also beneficial to boost the EV space. In short term, technical analysis indicates that investors should wait a bit. Compared to Tesla and Nio, Lucid Motors is still in its early stage, but it has the potential to subvert market perception in the long run.