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Right so I'm going to start this post off by addressing the people who are reading this post while taking a shit. If what I said was interesting to you and you still got poop left in the queue than I have more TA posts for you
I also have TL;DRs per every part aside this intro.
MMAT is a relatively controversial stock because the CEO basically openly declared a fight against shorts around July of last year. Since than they has collected a large amount of patients and NDA's, even though this is a stock who's company focus's on complex technology the fan-following of this stock is full of relatively new investors. The newer investors all like to get under popular theories like T+35s and other things which may not directly influence a stock, when these newer investors bark up a bad theory that doesn't work than it actually pushes the stocks reputation down with it- when you take a step back from all the noise it's actually look like it's brewing up into what could be a 10 bagger.
If you heard about MMAT and want to know more about it, or if you have been following MMAT and want a clean up and elaborate where I can. You can Join the discussion here I would not have been able to compile all this info on my own so I would like to thank everyone in my discord who helped me string this together
Tl;DR 300% increase on MMAT is nothing new and this thing can move strait up. The next one may be bigger than this.
So a lot of what I'm talking about focuses on how this stock moves and also on this spike in my No reason catalyst shitpost
here is the isolated event, the yellow vertical lines represents dates with earnings reports and the blue vertical lines are options expiration dates. The horizontal lines are historic resistances and supports based off of history- not a fib. We can observe this stock rushing out from middle twos to actually the high sixes separately from any event or reddit based catalyst; This had to have happened for more than no reason and anyone worth their salt would guess this is either shorts rebalancing or institutions short on contracts rebalancing their positions.
We are actually under a year long support line from before MMAT existed and the company on the nasdaq was still TRCH. How does a company higher new talent, grow for a year, get 150 patients and also LOSE VALUE AS A COMPANY? MMAT is in a position where it's under what the market previously evaluated the company at while also simultaneously growing. The next spike up may be much much bigger than 6 dollars due to the following.
Tl;dr: Institutions and insiders are holding their positions and have held since the last price spike.
So Q1, Q2, and Q3 institutions loaded up on a shitload of MMAT
looks as though inst. ownership increased, but by closer to 2% last quarter. So I did want to flex institutions loading up at a more expensive price than it was- Meaning institutions where holding and adding to their positions as the price faded down to the current 52 week low.
TL;DR I go through a bunch of legal documents that show insiders increasing their positions through options so that way you don't have to.
So this shit made my eyes bleed. This was some of the least aesthetically pleasing shit I've gone through in a while. So the Insider graph for the stock actually looks like this according to the same source
Now that looks like a big scary red bar at first. The amount sold compared to the amount owned by institutional increase is still the difference in a match and a forest fire.
HOWEVER this only looks like that due to tax reasons and how things get filed.
Why would anyone early exercise their options? Here's the Form 4 to prove it. He also talks about how his CTO did something simiar but who is gonna go through all the legal files to double check?
So here is the Source I used.
I know you guys can't read so I took pictures.
we got George right there and his sales
Math adds up in that form we saw earlier:
518,000 shares to collect 1.6 million? George tripled the amount of shares he sold with that
welch exercised hella options he sold 431k in the first box and exercised for (1100+500-800(gift)) 800k shares so he sold 431k shares to exercise and increase his position by 800k
Waldron Jonathan, sold and exercised the same amount of 471k
So here's the thing, When they sell they have to file it, when they buy they have to file it and when they exercise their right to own more shares they file it. However exercising doesn't show up as a "Share purchase" to places like market beat and fintel so it shows as insider sales without insider buys to match even though they drained the free float of shares.
I have no idea how much retail has increased their positions while the price has been going down
So in summation insiders used options to increase their share count and institutions mostly held.
So here's open interest on January contracts
Idk about those 3 calls but how many of those 4 & 5 calls do you think are fully covered with collateral?
Total OI for January is 100k, isn't that 10,000,000 shares in contracts? That is the biggest collection of calls on MMAT since its existence. So we have insiders collecting more shares, institutions and even more of those shares may be bought just to hedge all these calls that where sold.
TL;DR: There's more contracts expiring next week than last 300% price run up
Wild card TL:DR: MMAT also along with the January monthlies expiring also has a set of ADJ options that expire on FRIDAY that has its dividend placeholder MMTLP deliverable in the contracts.
TL:DR 2: MMAT also has MMAX which Canada can buy on Monday as a first dibs sort of bonus before any of this dynamite can blow up. Link to the MMAX discussion
TL;DR, MMAT inherited a large short position from TRCH and has been subject to institutions like Kerdside Capital who use short and distort tactics. Institutions and insiders both held during the price decrease, which shows the price drop to be more artificial. The float may be smaller than it is thanks to people buying up MMAT and MMAX. Catalysts lining up can cause the price to be "to hot to hold down" for shorts causing a price run up and when the price does run there will be enough rocket emojis and green dildos to satisfy a third of reddit.
Positions to satisfy this place