MVIS Stock Forecast implies "Overvalued" Despite Analyst "Buy" Ratings

Today we are looking at MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), to determine if the MVIS stock is a good buy. We will look at MVIS financial ratios, analyst ratings, and valuation to determine a MVIS stock forecast and price. What Business is MVIS Stock Engaged In? MicroVision, Inc. develops lidar sensors used in automotive safety and autonomous driving applications. Its laser beam scanning technology is based on micro-electrical mechanical systems, laser diodes, opto-mechanics, electronics, algorithms, and software. The company also develops micro-display concepts and designs for head-mounted augmented reality (AR) headsets, as well as 1440i MEMS module that can support AR headsets; and Interactive Display modules used in smart speakers and other devices. MVIS Stock Forecast and Analysis MicroVision, Inc. Competition and Comparables In order to undergo a comparable analysis (to determine MVIS stocks value), we need to first outline who MVIS's competitors are. These competitors need to be publicly listed, have valid financial metrics/multiples, operate in a similar manner to MVIS, and have a market cap similar to MVIS (if possible). By keeping this in mind, I found the following list of companies to be some of MVIS stocks closest competitors: UCTT, HIMX, VLDR, PUBM, XPER, and more MVIS Stock News and Information Horrible Recent MVIS Earnings MVIS Earnings (Yearly): MVIS Revenues: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in revenues of $-590k (or -19.09%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $2.5M. MVIS Cost of Revenues: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-1.4M (-99.86%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $2000. Since the decrease (of -99.86%), in MVIS's cost of revenue was lesser (by -80.76%) than the decrease (of -19.09%) in MVIS's revenues, we should expect that MVIS experienced an increase  in their FY gross profits. MVIS Gross Profit: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly increase in their gross profit of $806k (or 47.64%) resulting in a total gross profit of $2.5M. This decrease is consistent with our conclusion from the comparison of revenues and cost of revenues between FY 2021 and FY 2020. MVIS EBITDA: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their EBITDA of $29,065,000 resulting in a total EBITDA of $-41.74M. MVIS Net Income: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their net income of $29,566,000 resulting in a total net income of $-43.2M. MVIS EPS: As a result of MVIS's decrease in net income of $29.6M, MVIS's EPS also decreased (by $0.17) from $-0.1 in FY 2020 to $-0.27 in FY 2021 Overall, MVIS did not perform well financially in 2021 as most of their important metrics (EPS, Net Income, and EBITDA) all shrank by sizable amounts. However, MVIS is a high-growth stock, so maybe their more recent financials will show more growth and a more promising future for MVIS. MVIS Earnings (Quarterly): MVIS Revenues: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in revenues of $-207k (or -37.16%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $350k. MVIS Cost of Revenues: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-44,000 (-91.67%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $4,000.. MVIS Gross Profit: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their gross profit of $-163k (or -32.02%) resulting in a total gross profit of $346k. . MVIS EBITDA: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their EBITDA of $484,000 resulting in a total EBITDA of $-12.69M. This decrease (of 3.97%) stems from the fact that MVIS experienced a decrease in their gross profits of -32.02% (as we saw in the previous bullet point). MVIS Net Income: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their net income of $543,000 (or -4.3%) resulting in a total net income of $-13.17M. MVIS EPS: Despite MVIS's decrease in net income of $543,000, MVIS's was able to keep their  EPS constant from $-0.08 in Q4 2021 to $-0.08 in Q1 2022 Overall, it seems as though MVIS had a poor financial performance as many of their financial metrics shrunk or maintained, most notably their EPS , as well as their net income (by $543,000), and other metrics (as you can tell from the above bullet points). Additionally, MVIS stock missed their EPS estimate by -$0.01 (or -14.29%), as they reported an EPS of $-0.08 for the quarter (compared to their estimated EPS of $-0.07). No Possible MVIS Share Dilution As part of their Q1 2022 earnings release, MVIS stated that they currently have 164.22M Shares Outstanding (weighted average), which is up 0 shares (from 164.22M shares outstanding in Q4 2021). Furthermore, MVIS stock has up to 0 of shares that they can issue (thereby diluting MVIS's stock). This is fantastic news for MVIS investors, as stock dilution does not seem to be an issue/worry here. What Ratings have Analysts Given the MVIS Stock? Here is the current spread of MVIS stock ratings. In total there are 4 MVIS stock ratings, which fall in the following categories. 3 Buys 1 Holds 0 Sells Analyst Ratings have provided relatively strong indicators of future price movement, which is why they are used to determine if MVIS stock is a buy or sell. Overall, there are not many analyst ratings out for MVIS yet, however the majority of current ratings are in favor of "buying" MVIS at it's current price. MVIS Stock Forecast and Valuation MVIS Stock Forecast Using Comparable Analysis Price to Book (P/B): MVIS's current P/B ratio is 6.32, compared to the average P/B ratio of MVIS's peers being 2.84. This implies that MVIS is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -54.99% to be at fair value (based on MVIS's P/B compared to the P/B of their peers). Price to Equity (P/E): MVIS stock P/E ratio is currently -13.04, compared to the average P/E ratio of MVIS's peers being -5.53. This implies that MVIS is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -57.62% to be at fair value (based on MVIS's P/E compared to the P/E of their peers). Overall, MVIS stock is overvalued and needs to experience a change in stock price of (an average of) -56.3% to be considered “at fair value”. However, this may not be quite as bad as it may seem as the financial ratios of MVIS (and their competitors) are highly variable, which makes comparable analyses less relevant. Despite this I still think there is some merit to this prediction based on the fact that MVIS may be overvalued. The question that then remains is "by how much?". Is MVIS a good stock to buy right now? There seems to be an equal amount of positives and negatives when looking at the MVIS stock Firstly, when looking at the positives, MVIS has no shares that they have diluted over the past quarter, and they have no available shares to issue, thereby diluting the MVIS stock. Furthermore, the majority of analysts are ranking the MVIS stock as a "buy". Next, when we look at the negatives of the MVIS stock, we notice a lack of good earnings that have been coming from MVIS over the past couple of years. Furthermore, we also know that their financial ratios indicate that they are overvalued. Overall, it seems as though the negative aspects of MVIS outweigh the positive aspects in this case, which has lead me to take a bearish stance on the MVIS stock.I think that we could see a correction of maybe 10% (rather than the 50%+ achieved via the comparable analysis.

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MVIS Stock Forecast implies "Overvalued" Despite Analyst "Buy" Ratings

bearish

general Analysis

[5 min Read]

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Photo by: Scott Blake

Today we are looking at MicroVision, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), to determine if the MVIS stock is a good buy. We will look at MVIS financial ratios, analyst ratings, and valuation to determine a MVIS stock forecast and price.

What Business is MVIS Stock Engaged In?

MicroVision, Inc. develops lidar sensors used in automotive safety and autonomous driving applications. Its laser beam scanning technology is based on micro-electrical mechanical systems, laser diodes, opto-mechanics, electronics, algorithms, and software. The company also develops micro-display concepts and designs for head-mounted augmented reality (AR) headsets, as well as 1440i MEMS module that can support AR headsets; and Interactive Display modules used in smart speakers and other devices.

MVIS Stock Forecast and Analysis

MicroVision, Inc. Competition and Comparables

In order to undergo a comparable analysis (to determine MVIS stocks value), we need to first outline who MVIS's competitors are.

These competitors need to be publicly listed, have valid financial metrics/multiples, operate in a similar manner to MVIS, and have a market cap similar to MVIS (if possible).

By keeping this in mind, I found the following list of companies to be some of MVIS stocks closest competitors:

UCTT, HIMX, VLDR, PUBM, XPER, and more

MVIS Stock News and Information

Horrible Recent MVIS Earnings

MVIS Earnings (Yearly):

  • MVIS Revenues: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in revenues of $-590k (or -19.09%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $2.5M.
  • MVIS Cost of Revenues: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-1.4M (-99.86%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $2000. Since the decrease (of -99.86%), in MVIS's cost of revenue was lesser (by -80.76%) than the decrease (of -19.09%) in MVIS's revenues, we should expect that MVIS experienced an increase in their FY gross profits.
  • MVIS Gross Profit: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly increase in their gross profit of $806k (or 47.64%) resulting in a total gross profit of $2.5M. This decrease is consistent with our conclusion from the comparison of revenues and cost of revenues between FY 2021 and FY 2020.
  • MVIS EBITDA: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their EBITDA of $29,065,000 resulting in a total EBITDA of $-41.74M.
  • MVIS Net Income: In FY 2021, MVIS experienced a yearly decrease in their net income of $29,566,000 resulting in a total net income of $-43.2M.
  • MVIS EPS: As a result of MVIS's decrease in net income of $29.6M, MVIS's EPS also decreased (by $0.17) from $-0.1 in FY 2020 to $-0.27 in FY 2021

Overall, MVIS did not perform well financially in 2021 as most of their important metrics (EPS, Net Income, and EBITDA) all shrank by sizable amounts. However, MVIS is a high-growth stock, so maybe their more recent financials will show more growth and a more promising future for MVIS.

MVIS Earnings (Quarterly):

  • MVIS Revenues: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in revenues of $-207k (or -37.16%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $350k.
  • MVIS Cost of Revenues: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-44,000 (-91.67%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $4,000..
  • MVIS Gross Profit: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their gross profit of $-163k (or -32.02%) resulting in a total gross profit of $346k. .
  • MVIS EBITDA: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their EBITDA of $484,000 resulting in a total EBITDA of $-12.69M. This decrease (of 3.97%) stems from the fact that MVIS experienced a decrease in their gross profits of -32.02% (as we saw in the previous bullet point).
  • MVIS Net Income: In Q1 2022, MVIS experienced a quarterly decrease in their net income of $543,000 (or -4.3%) resulting in a total net income of $-13.17M.
  • MVIS EPS: Despite MVIS's decrease in net income of $543,000, MVIS's was able to keep their EPS constant from $-0.08 in Q4 2021 to $-0.08 in Q1 2022

Overall, it seems as though MVIS had a poor financial performance as many of their financial metrics shrunk or maintained, most notably their EPS , as well as their net income (by $543,000), and other metrics (as you can tell from the above bullet points).

Additionally, MVIS stock missed their EPS estimate by -$0.01 (or -14.29%), as they reported an EPS of $-0.08 for the quarter (compared to their estimated EPS of $-0.07).

No Possible MVIS Share Dilution

As part of their Q1 2022 earnings release, MVIS stated that they currently have 164.22M Shares Outstanding (weighted average), which is up 0 shares (from 164.22M shares outstanding in Q4 2021). Furthermore, MVIS stock has up to 0 of shares that they can issue (thereby diluting MVIS's stock). This is fantastic news for MVIS investors, as stock dilution does not seem to be an issue/worry here.

What Ratings have Analysts Given the MVIS Stock?

Here is the current spread of MVIS stock ratings. In total there are 4 MVIS stock ratings, which fall in the following categories.

  • 3 Buys
  • 1 Holds
  • 0 Sells

Analyst Ratings have provided relatively strong indicators of future price movement, which is why they are used to determine if MVIS stock is a buy or sell. Overall, there are not many analyst ratings out for MVIS yet, however the majority of current ratings are in favor of "buying" MVIS at it's current price.

MVIS Stock Forecast and Valuation

MVIS Stock Forecast Using Comparable Analysis

  1. Price to Book (P/B): MVIS's current P/B ratio is 6.32, compared to the average P/B ratio of MVIS's peers being 2.84. This implies that MVIS is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -54.99% to be at fair value (based on MVIS's P/B compared to the P/B of their peers).
  2. Price to Equity (P/E): MVIS stock P/E ratio is currently -13.04, compared to the average P/E ratio of MVIS's peers being -5.53. This implies that MVIS is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -57.62% to be at fair value (based on MVIS's P/E compared to the P/E of their peers).

Overall, MVIS stock is overvalued and needs to experience a change in stock price of (an average of) -56.3% to be considered “at fair value”. However, this may not be quite as bad as it may seem as the financial ratios of MVIS (and their competitors) are highly variable, which makes comparable analyses less relevant. Despite this I still think there is some merit to this prediction based on the fact that MVIS may be overvalued. The question that then remains is "by how much?".

Is MVIS a good stock to buy right now?

There seems to be an equal amount of positives and negatives when looking at the MVIS stock

Firstly, when looking at the positives, MVIS has no shares that they have diluted over the past quarter, and they have no available shares to issue, thereby diluting the MVIS stock. Furthermore, the majority of analysts are ranking the MVIS stock as a "buy".

Next, when we look at the negatives of the MVIS stock, we notice a lack of good earnings that have been coming from MVIS over the past couple of years. Furthermore, we also know that their financial ratios indicate that they are overvalued.

Overall, it seems as though the negative aspects of MVIS outweigh the positive aspects in this case, which has lead me to take a bearish stance on the MVIS stock.I think that we could see a correction of maybe 10% (rather than the 50%+ achieved via the comparable analysis.

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MVIS

MicroVision, Inc.

5.29

-0.02
-0.38%

Return

-28.40%
Change % Since Posting
-1.17
Change Since Posting
4.12
Price When Posted

Metrics

3.71
Target Price
8/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Months
Timeframe
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