$NFLX, $DIS, $VIAC, $T, $DISCA. Upcoming Earnings!!

Edit: The title has Netflix twice as opposed to AT&T which I meant to include. Not a financial advisor JakeAlphaInvestingCorp. -Blessed be my followers Disclaimer: My position: Extremely Red on $T Calls. Data pulled from a variety of sources, may be inaccurate. Especially google trends. I am biased, thus more of AT&T is presented. TLDR: Netflix fell last earnings report due to weak subscriber growth, the price has since risen. Google trends indicates a repeat. Disney fell last earnings report due to weak subscriber growth and parks being shut for the pandemic. Disney+ seems to have had an alright quarter for subscribers, it really started taking off in July. This after Q2 earnings so I slightly hesitant about this one. AT&T price rose last earnings on strong subscriber growth in both businesses, but then fell on merger announcement with Discovery. Google trends indicates their greatest subscriber growth for HBO to date. Feeling a repeat. VIACOM this DD has less on them but seeing competitors is good. Great past earnings. Discovery, your now stuck on the HBO train. Netflix's success or failure domestically and internationally will be reported on July 20th. This may help assess AT&T, Disney, Viacom, and Discovery investments. It would be smart to wait till after Netflix earnings before making a decision. Previous posts by the author about streaming: (Check my profile) Google Trends review posted a month ago. More current info presented below. Options Play for Q1 2021 ER, Disney vs Netflix vs AT&T. Big success. AT&T call before prior earnings. Big success then a big fail on merger. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ THE BOX OFFICE 2021 Having Box Office hits has been one of the major drivers of subscriptions to a streamers platform in the past year. Many of these hits do well internationally in countries such as China. - The list below shows the top grossing movies of 2021 domestically. A movie such as Wonder Woman 1984 released in 2020 will be shown on this list as it earned revenue in 2020. https://www.the-numbers.com/market/2021/top-grossing-movies ​ Below I have totaled the revenues from the top 25 Movies from the list above both domestically/internationally by studio. Only those released since 2021, so not including Wonder Woman and some other titles. Data from Numbers.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Google Trends Disclaimer: Data is not perfect and does not truly reflect subscriber-ship for a variety of reasons Consumers already owning Netflix/Disney+ may be less likely to search for them, whereas HBO users may be new inflating google trends data. Of the major streaming platforms only "HBO Max" and "Disney+" may be searched under the criteria "streaming network" see below. This is seemingly the most accurate search criteria. I will use the more general search criteria "search term" when comparing with Netflix, Paramount, etc... Using the search criteria "search term" would include data such as Disney's Parks. Netflix and Disney are also the names of the parent companies and not just their streaming platform as for HBO and Paramount+. Past Data Accuracy: For Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 HBO's uptrends along with box office hits did add subscribers. A lot for WW 1984, their biggest addition to date, and some for Batman Snyderverse. The uptrends associated with Netflix and Disney for the holidays did not coincide with a box office hit. As such the uptrends did not add meaningful subscribers for Disney and Netflix. Semi-Confirmation of data accuracy before AT&T and Disney Earnings: Netflix will release subscriber data on July 20th prior to AT&T and Disney. It may be a good idea to compare the the results to google trends to see if downtrending or uptrending does indeed help estimate subscriber prior to investing in AT&T, Disney, Viacom, or Discovery. ​ Trends data for HBO vs Disney+ for the past 12 months in the United States Search criteria= "Television Network" https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11fmb4rx9b,%2Fg%2F11f5bxylc0 ​ The blue line for HBO has four major upticks. First uptick is for Q4 2020 during the holidays along with Disney. HBO had a box office hit, none for Disney. The upticks for HBO during Q2 2021 are for Godzilla vs Kong, Mortal Kombat, and the Friends reunion. There is a good chance of above expected subcribers gains domestically. Disney's most recent uptick is both due to Loki the Tv series and the Black Widow movie. The same relative search interest is not shown though the movie has done better on it's opening weekend than GvsK. More theaters were shut down both domestically and internationally for GvsK, as well as vaccines not being out. ​ Search criteria = "Search Term" https://preview.redd.it/wnxt2w3e21b71.png?width=1054&format=png&auto=webp&s=08681fada3e5b98a749493877b83e2fa71871318 As can been seen Netflix has been down-trending during Q2 2021 relative to both Disney and HBO Previous quarter financials: Netflix down due to weak subscriber growth, since risen back up. Disney down due to weak subscriber growth and parks being shut during pandemic, since risen back up. AT&T up on strong subscriber growth and good financials, since risen back down. Trends indicate AT&T has continued strong subscriber growth while stock price falls as Netflix continues weak subscriber growth while stock price rises. Disney seemed to have a slow uptrend during the quarter but a strong finish, not as prominent as AT&T via google trends. Once again google trends data may be inaccurate. As Netflix has such a high P/E if doubts about it's future to continue rapid growth arise the stock price could fall.. Netflix's earnings report is first on July 20th. It can be used to assess growth of AT&T, Viacom, and Disney before their earnings. Compare Netflix subscriber growth domestically and internationally to past quarters and competitors. ​ Worldwide, Past 12 months The graph below shows the worldwide google trends data in the past 12 months for Disney and HBO. The upticks that were seen on the United States graph are present but less prominent. HBO has mainly been available in the United States up until June 29th 2021 when they launched in Latin America (Regional breakdown to follow). As such there was no way for them to compete internationally. Search criteria = "Television Network" https://preview.redd.it/1ccpf7hf21b71.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=236d1eeb9c3c3dc5bf99f511f572c6a656407cfa Disney while having a week start of the quarter has since up-trended for it's Marvel releases. HBO began a strong quarter on the release of GvsK. This is mainly due to the United States. HBO has a final uptick seen here but not seen in the United States graph. This is due to HBO's international launch in 39 countries and territories in Latin America which seems to have edged them extremely close to Disney on an international scale. HBOs final uptick could strongly be influenced by a big marketing push in Latin America. Note:HBO will call there platform different things in different countries. For marketing reasons and due to deals with regional providers. In Canada HBO is called "Crave" and distributed by Bell. It will not show up on the search results. It can also be called HBO Latin America or HBO Asia depending on your region. This last point google may be smart enough to interpret for google trends, I am unsure. Disney is just Disney+. ​ Search criteria = "Search Term" https://preview.redd.it/gz6yto2h21b71.png?width=1070&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cac1c4f234c3ed09aab2c24a61ef6629f960493 Worldwide Netflix is still on a downtrend over the past quarter, seemingly following last quarters trends. (Once again google trends data may be inaccurate) Disney has been higher this past quarter than the same time last year. Worldwide it has still not had the same interest as during the 2020 holiday season but it has been steady all quarter and then up-trending strongly since July. HBO worldwide continues to uptrend more strongly than it's previous high during the holiday season where they added the most subscribers to date. International users will not greatly affect Q2 financials apart from maybe adding subscribers in the final 3 days of the quarter. ​ HBO vs Paramount vs Discovery Worldwide, "Search Term" https://preview.redd.it/yaygbq5i21b71.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=fded4a050e08c951b7dddb99259775734eaa2daf Search Term used and Discovery is an actual word, might be other reasons to type this in. Paramount just launched/ changed it's name this quarter. Discovery seems to have more appeal than paramount but it is on a steady downtrend over the quarter. United States https://preview.redd.it/sjodso0k21b71.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9097b5dbff37eaeab1dd90dbd0800aba7114a87 More of the same. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HBO Goes International Regional Breakdown of Interest Worldwide: 12 Months https://preview.redd.it/rki8rnam21b71.png?width=1055&format=png&auto=webp&s=0411da007ae145159f1f45ea89f12b657a4b27a1 Disney is winning HBO only overtook Disney this past quarter in the United States. Since June 29th 2021 (HBO International launch) https://preview.redd.it/wfzvc16n21b71.png?width=1068&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c86c1280f3bb196c97e2e84e5bcc9355a89fef5 International launch in Latin America pushes HBO ahead south of the border Most populous countries are in order: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina Past 7 days https://preview.redd.it/bjca51io21b71.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=be56e9c72c506bb6e024f915a454749bbacbbad1 As seen in my first graph, HBO Max vs Disney+, Disney has overtaken HBO Max with the release of Black Widow in the United States. Worldwide Disney again is overtaking HBO everywhere except Mexico, though the battle is much much closer for HBO than it was 1 month ago. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 Most populated countries in Latin America, HBO vs Disney Brazil - Past 30 Days https://preview.redd.it/3u10n4or21b71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=b40002b9a206a03829902b6b2adad97c7ab46e4c Mexico - Past 30 Days https://preview.redd.it/opr4zlds21b71.png?width=1071&format=png&auto=webp&s=8427e474a2ccf51f746e2fb68cfaadaa655d79b7 Argentina - Past 30 days https://preview.redd.it/lg3hsg0t21b71.png?width=1083&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3b40e98e949afd19a5a9738a8bf1e7ead70ac39 Colombia - Past 30 days https://preview.redd.it/9c85v85v11b71.png?width=1096&format=png&auto=webp&s=63eee8daa8dd61d514d2e691372ef4707c846c58 Black Widow vs Godzilla: ​ https://preview.redd.it/jzbg2nn0g1b71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=143757333112790a3ac80cbc3185b38e77f6c6c3 Black Widow made $60 Million on Disney plus, 2 million users rented it for $30. How much did GvsK make on VOD? Only the US got it free on HBO $20 internationally to rent, e.g. Canada, UK, etc.. More theaters were closed during March due to the pandemic worldwide than for Black Widow.

back
scot-tagscot-icon

RadiantJelly3253

Jul 13, 2021

13.34%

Change % Since Posting

540.60

Price When Posted

72.09

Change Since Posting

Is this your Reddit account?

Claim this username to collect earnings from this post, and the portfolio!

portfolio reddit logoportfolio utradea logo

$NFLX, $DIS, $VIAC, $T, $DISCA. Upcoming Earnings!!

bullish

Edit: The title has Netflix twice as opposed to AT&T which I meant to include.

Not a financial advisor

JakeAlphaInvestingCorp.
-Blessed be my followers

Disclaimer:

  • My position: Extremely Red on $T Calls.
  • Data pulled from a variety of sources, may be inaccurate. Especially google trends.
  • I am biased, thus more of AT&T is presented.

TLDR:

  • Netflix fell last earnings report due to weak subscriber growth, the price has since risen. Google trends indicates a repeat.
  • Disney fell last earnings report due to weak subscriber growth and parks being shut for the pandemic. Disney+ seems to have had an alright quarter for subscribers, it really started taking off in July. This after Q2 earnings so I slightly hesitant about this one.
  • AT&T price rose last earnings on strong subscriber growth in both businesses, but then fell on merger announcement with Discovery. Google trends indicates their greatest subscriber growth for HBO to date. Feeling a repeat.
  • VIACOM this DD has less on them but seeing competitors is good. Great past earnings.
  • Discovery, your now stuck on the HBO train.
  • Netflix's success or failure domestically and internationally will be reported on July 20th. This may help assess AT&T, Disney, Viacom, and Discovery investments.
  • It would be smart to wait till after Netflix earnings before making a decision.

Previous posts by the author about streaming:
(Check my profile)

  1. Google Trends review posted a month ago. More current info presented below.
  2. Options Play for Q1 2021 ER, Disney vs Netflix vs AT&T. Big success.
  3. AT&T call before prior earnings. Big success then a big fail on merger.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE BOX OFFICE 2021

Having Box Office hits has been one of the major drivers of subscriptions to a streamers platform in the past year. Many of these hits do well internationally in countries such as China.

- The list below shows the top grossing movies of 2021 domestically. A movie such as Wonder Woman 1984 released in 2020 will be shown on this list as it earned revenue in 2020.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/2021/top-grossing-movies

Below I have totaled the revenues from the top 25 Movies from the list above both domestically/internationally by studio. Only those released since 2021, so not including Wonder Woman and some other titles.

Data from Numbers.com

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Google Trends
Disclaimer:

  1. Data is not perfect and does not truly reflect subscriber-ship for a variety of reasons
  2. Consumers already owning Netflix/Disney+ may be less likely to search for them, whereas HBO users may be new inflating google trends data.
  3. Of the major streaming platforms only "HBO Max" and "Disney+" may be searched under the criteria "streaming network" see below. This is seemingly the most accurate search criteria. I will use the more general search criteria "search term" when comparing with Netflix, Paramount, etc...
  4. Using the search criteria "search term" would include data such as Disney's Parks. Netflix and Disney are also the names of the parent companies and not just their streaming platform as for HBO and Paramount+.

Past Data Accuracy:

For Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 HBO's uptrends along with box office hits did add subscribers. A lot for WW 1984, their biggest addition to date, and some for Batman Snyderverse. The uptrends associated with Netflix and Disney for the holidays did not coincide with a box office hit. As such the uptrends did not add meaningful subscribers for Disney and Netflix.

Semi-Confirmation of data accuracy before AT&T and Disney Earnings:

Netflix will release subscriber data on July 20th prior to AT&T and Disney. It may be a good idea to compare the the results to google trends to see if downtrending or uptrending does indeed help estimate subscriber prior to investing in AT&T, Disney, Viacom, or Discovery.

Trends data for HBO vs Disney+ for the past 12 months in the United States
Search criteria= "Television Network"

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11fmb4rx9b,%2Fg%2F11f5bxylc0

  • The blue line for HBO has four major upticks.
  • First uptick is for Q4 2020 during the holidays along with Disney. HBO had a box office hit, none for Disney.
  • The upticks for HBO during Q2 2021 are for Godzilla vs Kong, Mortal Kombat, and the Friends reunion. There is a good chance of above expected subcribers gains domestically.
  • Disney's most recent uptick is both due to Loki the Tv series and the Black Widow movie. The same relative search interest is not shown though the movie has done better on it's opening weekend than GvsK. More theaters were shut down both domestically and internationally for GvsK, as well as vaccines not being out.

Search criteria = "Search Term"



  • As can been seen Netflix has been down-trending during Q2 2021 relative to both Disney and HBO
  • Previous quarter financials:
  1. Netflix down due to weak subscriber growth, since risen back up.
  2. Disney down due to weak subscriber growth and parks being shut during pandemic, since risen back up.
  3. AT&T up on strong subscriber growth and good financials, since risen back down.

Trends indicate AT&T has continued strong subscriber growth while stock price falls as Netflix continues weak subscriber growth while stock price rises. Disney seemed to have a slow uptrend during the quarter but a strong finish, not as prominent as AT&T via google trends. Once again google trends data may be inaccurate.

  • As Netflix has such a high P/E if doubts about it's future to continue rapid growth arise the stock price could fall..
  • Netflix's earnings report is first on July 20th. It can be used to assess growth of AT&T, Viacom, and Disney before their earnings. Compare Netflix subscriber growth domestically and internationally to past quarters and competitors.

Worldwide, Past 12 months

The graph below shows the worldwide google trends data in the past 12 months for Disney and HBO.

The upticks that were seen on the United States graph are present but less prominent. HBO has mainly been available in the United States up until June 29th 2021 when they launched in Latin America (Regional breakdown to follow). As such there was no way for them to compete internationally.

Search criteria = "Television Network"



  • Disney while having a week start of the quarter has since up-trended for it's Marvel releases.
  • HBO began a strong quarter on the release of GvsK. This is mainly due to the United States.
  • HBO has a final uptick seen here but not seen in the United States graph. This is due to HBO's international launch in 39 countries and territories in Latin America which seems to have edged them extremely close to Disney on an international scale.
  • HBOs final uptick could strongly be influenced by a big marketing push in Latin America.

Note:HBO will call there platform different things in different countries. For marketing reasons and due to deals with regional providers. In Canada HBO is called "Crave" and distributed by Bell. It will not show up on the search results. It can also be called HBO Latin America or HBO Asia depending on your region. This last point google may be smart enough to interpret for google trends, I am unsure. Disney is just Disney+.

Search criteria = "Search Term"



  • Worldwide Netflix is still on a downtrend over the past quarter, seemingly following last quarters trends. (Once again google trends data may be inaccurate)
  • Disney has been higher this past quarter than the same time last year. Worldwide it has still not had the same interest as during the 2020 holiday season but it has been steady all quarter and then up-trending strongly since July.
  • HBO worldwide continues to uptrend more strongly than it's previous high during the holiday season where they added the most subscribers to date. International users will not greatly affect Q2 financials apart from maybe adding subscribers in the final 3 days of the quarter.

HBO vs Paramount vs Discovery

Worldwide, "Search Term"



  • Search Term used and Discovery is an actual word, might be other reasons to type this in.
  • Paramount just launched/ changed it's name this quarter.
  • Discovery seems to have more appeal than paramount but it is on a steady downtrend over the quarter.

United States



  • More of the same.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HBO Goes International

Regional Breakdown of Interest Worldwide:

12 Months



  • Disney is winning
  • HBO only overtook Disney this past quarter in the United States.

Since June 29th 2021 (HBO International launch)



  • International launch in Latin America pushes HBO ahead south of the border
  • Most populous countries are in order: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina

Past 7 days



  • As seen in my first graph, HBO Max vs Disney+, Disney has overtaken HBO Max with the release of Black Widow in the United States.
  • Worldwide Disney again is overtaking HBO everywhere except Mexico, though the battle is much much closer for HBO than it was 1 month ago.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4

Most populated countries in Latin America, HBO vs Disney

Brazil - Past 30 Days



Mexico - Past 30 Days



Argentina - Past 30 days



Colombia - Past 30 days



Black Widow vs Godzilla:



Black Widow made $60 Million on Disney plus, 2 million users rented it for $30.

How much did GvsK make on VOD?

  • Only the US got it free on HBO $20 internationally to rent, e.g. Canada, UK, etc..
  • More theaters were closed during March due to the pandemic worldwide than for Black Widow.
Comments

Write your comment....

Sign in to comment

read-time
7 min

600.00

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

1-2 Weeks

Timeframe
Share
catalyst icon
Earnings Release
catalyst icon
News
catalyst icon
SEC Filing
catalyst icon
Sentiment
catalyst icon
Other Catalyst

NFLX Channel

Start new chat
aiodd-ad
next