Dec 9, 2021
[6 min Read]
Well my dear fellows, I do believe that we deserve a round of applause for steeling ourselves and boldly stepping into AH with relatively little to go on.
After one very interesting day Context Therapeutics dropped the much awaited “PR”, the link to which you can find here.
If you can't be bothered to read it, I do believe they summed it up quite well in their Twitter post:
*Waves monke hand in the air*
But let us not get ahead of ourselves nor side tracked while I bask in my own glory! You are here of course for “the scoop”.
Context Therapeutics IPO'd earlier this year in October at $5. They came onto the scene with a nifty pipeline with what i'm going to call their “flag candidate” ONA-XR undergoing phase 2 clinical trials for 4 diferent “areas of effect” and their other candidate, their Claudin 6 program in pre clinical trials.
Curiously Onapristone isn't a new drug. In Fact it was developed way back in 1984. (You can find a little about it here). Although from what I can gather Contexts Therapeutics' ONA-XR candidate is an extended release version of it that seeks to reduce any negative side effects.
Since they went public we have had lots of … “Fun” … As you can see by their price chart.
The chart unfortunately doesn't show the machinations of the current days after hour trading. The price (today on the 9th of December) is slightly over the $8 mark.
“Magnus, why has it gone up over 40% in AH?”
Well my dear fellow, that brings us back to their presentations. Let us have a look at what has been going on.
I posted about CNTX. Not really a relevant occurrence and I did find it rather by accident, but it gives me “big PP energy” and one must fan one's own flames so it had to be mentioned!
The company gave out a press release stating that they would be presenting their clinical data on ONA-XR in breast cancer at SABCS (San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium) 2021.
In Fact they were to have no less than 3 presentations over the course of 2 days.
Their PR would seemingly lock-in the bottom and CNTX began to climb. Days went by and buzzing on Twitter picked up, watchers grew on StockTwits, Zack and his hoard showed up and by the 1st of December the price had more than doubled.
“ ... the Company entered into definitive securities purchase agreements for a private placement with accredited investors of 5,000,000 shares of common stock of Context Therapeutics together with warrants to purchase 5,000,000 shares of common stock at a combined offering price of $6.25, which will result in gross proceeds to Context Therapeutics of approximately $31.25 million, before deducting placement offering expenses.”
Proactive drops an article on the company titled:
“Context Therapeutics reports 3Q results during a “pivotal” period for the company”
And then another one a few hours later.
Curiously, the offering was priced at $6.25 and the high of the day had only been $5.86. Nevertheless panic ensued and by the 8th the price had dipped as low as $4.42.
Their first presentation was named:
“Primary results of ONAWA (SOLTI-1802) trial: A window of opportunity trial of onapristone in postmenopausal women with progesterone receptor-positive/HER2-negative early breast cancer (EBC)”
For the masses there was absolutely nothing to go on except these two photos:
And then someone dug up this presentation just to throw some fuel on the fire.
As you might imagine, “bro-science” ensued and opinions could be found spread across Twitter and StockTwits. The price action was interesting to say the least, as mentioned previously, we briefly touched $4.42.
The day started off rather glumly but after an hour trading FOMO began to set in and we began our current run. The two remaining “presentations” to be given were:
“The SMILE study: A phase 2 trial of onapristone in combination with fulvestrant for patients with ER+ and HER2- metastatic breast cancer after progression on endocrine therapy and CDK4/6 inhibitors”
“Circulating tumor DNA-guided adaptive therapy escalation in ER+ MBC: A phase 1b study with letrozole, palbociclib and onapristone ER”
Once again there was no news to be had until after the bell so both Twitter and ST were rampant with fierce bulls and rabid bears letting their opinion be known.
Seeking Alpha threw out an article which had much to say about nothing.
The general trend was up, with a few minor hiccups along the way.
“Context Therapeutics® Announces Positive Data from ONA-XR in Early Breast Cancer at 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium”
Now my dear fellow, I will lay out for you the basis of my opinion!
We will start with what you most certainly came for, a price target. Well, to be perfectly honest it is anyone's guess. Tis' but pure speculation ol' chap!
And let us not get too carried away and start raving about floats and shares outstanding. There should be around 16M shares outstanding (but don't quote me on that) and the float is … Erm… Less than 16M… 😄
What I can point out is that:
Of course, do expect your usual dosage of FOMOing, FUDing and ticker spam. Keep an eye out for offerings.
Anyway, I wish you all the best of luck! I do believe we are onto something good.
- Magnus Chimpski
Articles from today:
Barrons article that you can find here.
Yahoo article here.
Pulse 2.0 article here.
InvestmentU article here.
These people, rocking the WordPress favicon… Somebody tell them…
An interview (2020) with the Co-Founder, CEO and Director Martin Lehr: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81jkLftrthE.
An interview (2018) with Scott Applebaum (President of Context Therapeutics between 2017 and 2019) Source link: Linkedin.
Citybizlist Interview: Part I - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovPWEfzv1GU.
Citybizlist Interview: Part II - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYFG0LIhQbA.
Citybizlist Interview: Part III - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JStfRxG6w8Q.
My previous article, of course 😉