TLDR: uniQure (NASDAQ: QURE) is worth at least $30/share, not $18/share (4/20/2022).

Proprietary valuation model with revenue build: Click here to open google sheet

Phase III results for Hemophilia B gene therapy: Click here to open company filing

Share price expectations:

ValueSt0nks: $29/share
Latest Analyst update on price (UBS): $40/share (03/17/2022)
Analyst high: $90/share
Analyst low: $34/share

Company background:

uniQure is undervalued and deeply so. The company is a pioneer in the gene therapy space and is on-track to provide a life-saver to patients affected by moderate to severe hemophilia B. For many that are unaware, these patients receive treatment 2-3 times weekly and represent 50-60% of people affected by hemophilia B. This is exorbitantly expensive over a patients lifetime (think +$20M).

The win for patients? - Less doctor visits, healthier lives, and lower cost burden over their lifetime

uniQure's new gene therapy provided a one-time treatment to patients, 96% of whom showed improved conditions even 18-months after treatment. This means lower frequency of visits, healthier lives, and lower medical burden. This represents a win even for the insurers and government. Read more about the phase III clinical trials here

Potential stock catalysts:

US FDA filing for right to go-to-market (i.e., BLA) >> expected in H1 2022; Already filed and under review in Europe
Acceptance of US BLA filing >> Typically decisions are received at least 10-months after filing
Institutional bears start dumping their overvalued stocks and seek value, in this case to save lives
UniQure is to receive $1.6B from CSL Behring (licensee) upon BLA filing and achievement of milestones and +20% royalties from sales. See model above for cash flow projections.
M&A candidate for companies interested in gene therapy; Other pipeline drugs still early stage.

What are your thoughts? Is anyone invested? Sure, the FED is posturing aggressively against inflation and Russia is still fighting an unwinnable war, but value is value.