"Were going to play to win every single day", "We don't use the T word, Try is a bad word, we focus on the Do" - Ryan Martin - CEO at Fathom Digital Manufacturing

I posted a DD 3 months ago pointing out the squeeze metrics of this company, a deep dive into the company and sector turned what I thought (and still is) a squeeze play into a potential value play. Round 3...FIGHT...

But how is it different this time?

Ok, so what's different this time. What TF needs to be different, SP DOUBLED LAST TIME???!!! Well what is most obviously different this time is that $FATH proved that stock price can double. Over 100% actually from $5.04 to $11.50 (in 6 days) and it did this on low volume. We are also at a nice fib support that we can see was tested twice on the run up to $11 and tested this level on the previous two trading days as well. I believe this to be the accumulated long level, with more being added now. Today we saw some big buys, likely by Siguler Guff a hedge fund. $FATH made up 29.23% of their portfolio on 01/27/22. They have been buying the dip ever since. They see the low float and the possibility of this stock.

Stock volume was 54% short today (3/28/22) yet the stock price rose 6.16%, on very low volume. Nice 78 fib respect and an engulfing candle on the daily

Stock volume was 54% short today (3/28/22) yet the stock price rose 6.16%, on very low volume

Squeeze Metrics

Float-2.3M Total share float, 49.2M shares are locked up until the stock trades above $12 dollars for 20 days out of a 30-day period

2.3M share float, all other shares are locked up until $12

Insider and Hedge fund ownership-The floor should be $7.92. Check out the holders average price on shares. Not to mention total ownership is close to 97%. This data corroborates the float above.

97% ownership and holding

Siguler Guff Positions on 01/27/22. They have likely been adding on every dip and todays 1:00pm CST volume is what got me adding

FTD's-Doesn't look like much but look what happened on its last run. Near FTD lows, stock starts to diverge and then the FTD's get silly.

FTD's from 02-08-22 to present have not been delivered. That's roughly 1,613,000 shares that need to be delivered. If I were a hedge fund I'd rather turn a profit and buy these shares at $7 or below. And look what happened last time in short positions section. Returned shares + Retail + Insider buying = Squeeze Time

Cost to Borrow-Borrow rate continues to rise by the day. @ 324.76% today. Cost to borrow data also shows us that likely one source owns all of these as min, avg and max borrow fee are the same

https://preview.redd.it/gk4odtj8j9q81.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9eba5e5b89e3a861c043acd2963eeffe22237163

Short Positions & Short Interest-While 53% of the volume today was short, the stock still made a 6% gain. Short interest of float is reported as 3.93%, this data is based on the entire float of 49.2M shares. Only 2.3M shares are available

Follow the whole volume table and you will see that very low volume catapulted this stock from $5.04 to $11.50 previously. See next picture below.

much less than $30M sent this ticker last time. Strangely we started at 53% short volume last time as well.

Options volume-Today the May 22, 2022 7.5c volume added 5,057 volume, with no pre-existing OI....Does someone know something? Well rumor has it that Fathom Digital is expanding production 2x in areas surrounding $TSLA, $AMZN and $GE at a "no-expense-spared" rate.

5,057 volume today on may 7.5c's with no pre-existing OI. I think these were largely insider adds, don't worry, Only 10 of those are mine as I am scaling in.

Fundamental Data

Earnings Reports-Last earnings FATH reported a loss of $1.7M with revenue of $44M. Last year the reported loss was $5M with a revenue of $19M. Loss percent change up 66% and revenue up 133%. 2022 projection is $190M.....that would be 328% increase in revenue.

https://preview.redd.it/foqdlefgj9q81.png?width=791&format=png&auto=webp&s=8682b773a602a8c8881a400be68e876ad1a227e3

Rumors-Rumor has it that 2 locations (around $TSLA, $GE and $AMZN) are expanding to double capacity (at a "no-expense-spared" rate) to support new mid-level manufacturing...not just prototyping anymore. A manufacturing partnership announcement will send FATH flying with its low float. And why would you double capacity as a company? Oh, maybe you went from low-level production and proved yourself and now $TSLA, $GE and $AMZN want the whole enchilada?

Additionally FATH has restructured its design and detailing process as well as reorganized its client priority list. FATH buys up local fabrication companies that support its target clients manufacturing facilities (i.e. $TSLA, $GE, $AMZN etc.). In doing so they have also centralized the design and detailing process to its headquarters to streamline the process. Now its customers see design returns in days, not months and they are focusing on their growing customers with repeat and large volume.

Positions: Scaling in, currently (500) shares @ $6.89. (10) 5/20/22 7.5c's and (10) 9/16/22 13.5c's

I am not a financial advisor