$SNAP bull case for earnings rip

While everyone is sitting around wondering why they didn't buy Netflix puts when the play was so obvious, let's regroup and take a look at Snapchat. Remember what happened last ER? FB tanked and dragged a bunch of other stock down with it for no good reason other than panic. Snap dropped a ton because social media was 'dead'. Then they posted their first profit ever and rocketed 58% the next day once everyone realized Snap was not only unrelated to FB's sinking ship, but is taking their lost market share. https://preview.redd.it/rrwmpzn0ypu81.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=9141637251a47a2e09094b89578a2710dc0387a8 What's happening today? NFLX tanked again and the sky is falling, so everything growth is down bigly today on no news. Now lets get to why Snap could rocket. Traffic is way up from last quarter across the board, but more importantly, desktop traffic is up by 11m last quarter. You may be wondering, who the hell uses Snapchat on desktop? Advertisers, that's who. If you have to generate creative, upload files, view reports, download lead files, retrieve invoices to submit to accounting etc - it's gotta be on desktop. Marketing types are scrambling to find replacements for the eyes they are losing on Facebook. My guess is lots of new advertiser accounts created right after the FB fiasco. EPS last time around was 0.01, a huge improvement. Avg estimate now is 0.01 which means a big beat is feasible, combined with the NFXL drop we might see a nice move. Positions: 10x 4/22 43/48 Bull Call Spread 5x 4/22 -29p/34c Risk Reversal (if I'm wrong I'll take assignment and sell CC's in between shifts at Wendy's) TLDR: I bought calls, you should buy puts. https://preview.redd.it/sjrqafn8zpu81.png?width=1547&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cf12b68bcef15ac2fba44dce6590e7c0f4559ae https://preview.redd.it/8h83jj1azpu81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=78a60624cc426e4793b21f735e024a8859baad37 https://preview.redd.it/qaqt5tvazpu81.png?width=1549&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7f17c2d2da634e0ceab0502b9770bcf72afe1a4

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Original Post

ghann

Apr 21, 2022

-48.25%

Change % Since Posting

-14.35

Change Since Posting

29.75

Price When Posted

SNAP

Snap Inc.

15.39

0.51 3.48%

Current Price

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$SNAP bull case for earnings rip

bullish

While everyone is sitting around wondering why they didn't buy Netflix puts when the play was so obvious, let's regroup and take a look at Snapchat.

Remember what happened last ER? FB tanked and dragged a bunch of other stock down with it for no good reason other than panic. Snap dropped a ton because social media was 'dead'. Then they posted their first profit ever and rocketed 58% the next day once everyone realized Snap was not only unrelated to FB's sinking ship, but is taking their lost market share.

What's happening today? NFLX tanked again and the sky is falling, so everything growth is down bigly today on no news.

Now lets get to why Snap could rocket. Traffic is way up from last quarter across the board, but more importantly, desktop traffic is up by 11m last quarter. You may be wondering, who the hell uses Snapchat on desktop? Advertisers, that's who. If you have to generate creative, upload files, view reports, download lead files, retrieve invoices to submit to accounting etc - it's gotta be on desktop.

Marketing types are scrambling to find replacements for the eyes they are losing on Facebook. My guess is lots of new advertiser accounts created right after the FB fiasco.

EPS last time around was 0.01, a huge improvement. Avg estimate now is 0.01 which means a big beat is feasible, combined with the NFXL drop we might see a nice move.

Positions:
10x 4/22 43/48 Bull Call Spread
5x 4/22 -29p/34c Risk Reversal (if I'm wrong I'll take assignment and sell CC's in between shifts at Wendy's)

TLDR: I bought calls, you should buy puts.