$SPY - Predictions for the week of 3/28

Unfortunately, I was very busy last weekend and was unable to make a predictions post. I am back though, better than ever. ​ 1 Day Chart Last night before I fell asleep... I was just thinking: how is this possible, how could there be a 9% bull run on basically no good news. Then, the thought finally came to my mind, every market crash has been different. So many people like to relate market crashes to events that have happened in the past like 1930, 2001, 2008, except they are all different. I still believe that there is a market crash but now my view has changed: this market crash will be like nothing we have ever seen before, I am not implying this will catastrophic collapse of the financial system, just saying that there will be movements we have not seen before and things that historically do not make sense (like what happened last week). Interesting enough: low volume bull runs have signaled an end to a bear market and the start of a longer term bull market. This will not be the case for 2022. There is one main reason why I believe this market crash will be different than anything before. Retail investors ​ Daily volume has increased dramatically in the last year Many more retail investors have started actively trading Retail investors have caused increased volume in option contracts The top 100 stocks with the most option volume have outperformed major indices The volume on stocks these stocks is mostly hedging... One last thing, just all this above. Retail investors have access to more information and tools than ever before. In 1930 retail investors read the stock tables in newspapers they had no complex analysis... that's why one spooky front page title made people panic sell. Today is much different, I just found this in depth research paper written by a multi-billion dollar bank from just a youtube video. Because of the increase in call volume on these large cap stocks, market makers are forced to buy up more shares as a hedge if the options expire in the money. This has caused a once in a lifetime bull market. And now, since there is many more retail traders actively trading stocks and options this is why I believe this market crash will be different than anything before. ​ ​ 1 Day Chart Important zones to watch ~453 major resistance area ~432 major support area ​ The RSI is currently at 99 on the daily chart, this is a very bearish indicator showing that the buying pressure is gone now. %K could cross %D in the beginning of next week. ​ 1 Day Chart While it might not seem obvious at first, to me there is a clear cycle here. During this bear market there will be a smaller cycles. Cycles of high volatility with a big swing in the market, followed by a consolidation phase with lower volatility before the next swing. Ignore the market open on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine that is an outlier in this since it is a very rare occurrence. ​ US Bond Yield Curve ​ Historical 10Year - 2Year US Bond Chart Compared to SPX Predictions Even after the rally last week, I still think that there is an overall downtrend. I seriously believe that there will be cycles also because many new retail investors, the movements in the market will be extrapolated. When the 10 year minus the 2 year bond yield approaches 0% or has even inverted this has previously indicated a recession. Bonds will always be a major indicator in the markets. From my technical analysis and research I can conclude that we are entering another consolidation period with a down trend. The situation in Ukraine will not be getting any better and there are no major events happening next week that will shake the markets. The next few weeks will not be a crazy panic like early January, just a slow sell off. For my positions I will be looking for an entry on UVXY and ITM Put contracts for a quick day trade, I do not know if I will hold anything over the next weekend, haven't made that decision yet. * Not professional financial advice, do not solely make your trades based on my opinions, I encourage everyone to research more TLDR Monday🐻Tuesday🐂Wednesday🐻Thursday🐻Friday 🐂, Support~432, 10Y-2Y bonds signaling a market crash! I will respond to every comment!

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$SPY - Predictions for the week of 3/28

bullish

Unfortunately, I was very busy last weekend and was unable to make a predictions post. I am back though, better than ever.

1 Day Chart

Last night before I fell asleep... I was just thinking: how is this possible, how could there be a 9% bull run on basically no good news. Then, the thought finally came to my mind, every market crash has been different. So many people like to relate market crashes to events that have happened in the past like 1930, 2001, 2008, except they are all different. I still believe that there is a market crash but now my view has changed: this market crash will be like nothing we have ever seen before, I am not implying this will catastrophic collapse of the financial system, just saying that there will be movements we have not seen before and things that historically do not make sense (like what happened last week).

Interesting enough: low volume bull runs have signaled an end to a bear market and the start of a longer term bull market. This will not be the case for 2022. There is one main reason why I believe this market crash will be different than anything before.

Retail investors

Daily volume has increased dramatically in the last year

Many more retail investors have started actively trading

Retail investors have caused increased volume in option contracts

The top 100 stocks with the most option volume have outperformed major indices

The volume on stocks these stocks is mostly hedging...

One last thing, just all this above. Retail investors have access to more information and tools than ever before. In 1930 retail investors read the stock tables in newspapers they had no complex analysis... that's why one spooky front page title made people panic sell. Today is much different, I just found this in depth research paper written by a multi-billion dollar bank from just a youtube video.

Because of the increase in call volume on these large cap stocks, market makers are forced to buy up more shares as a hedge if the options expire in the money. This has caused a once in a lifetime bull market. And now, since there is many more retail traders actively trading stocks and options this is why I believe this market crash will be different than anything before.

1 Day Chart

Important zones to watch

~453 major resistance area

~432 major support area

The RSI is currently at 99 on the daily chart, this is a very bearish indicator showing that the buying pressure is gone now. %K could cross %D in the beginning of next week.

1 Day Chart

While it might not seem obvious at first, to me there is a clear cycle here. During this bear market there will be a smaller cycles. Cycles of high volatility with a big swing in the market, followed by a consolidation phase with lower volatility before the next swing. Ignore the market open on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine that is an outlier in this since it is a very rare occurrence.

US Bond Yield Curve

Historical 10Year - 2Year US Bond Chart Compared to SPX

Predictions

Even after the rally last week, I still think that there is an overall downtrend. I seriously believe that there will be cycles also because many new retail investors, the movements in the market will be extrapolated.

When the 10 year minus the 2 year bond yield approaches 0% or has even inverted this has previously indicated a recession. Bonds will always be a major indicator in the markets.

From my technical analysis and research I can conclude that we are entering another consolidation period with a down trend. The situation in Ukraine will not be getting any better and there are no major events happening next week that will shake the markets. The next few weeks will not be a crazy panic like early January, just a slow sell off.

For my positions I will be looking for an entry on UVXY and ITM Put contracts for a quick day trade, I do not know if I will hold anything over the next weekend, haven't made that decision yet.

* Not professional financial advice, do not solely make your trades based on my opinions, I encourage everyone to research more

TLDR

Monday🐻Tuesday🐂Wednesday🐻Thursday🐻Friday 🐂, Support~432, 10Y-2Y bonds signaling a market crash!

I will respond to every comment!

read-time
3 min
500.00
Target Price
9/ 10
Confidence
< 1 Week
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