$SPY 5 reasons why I am going long (short term trade)

TLDR Russia is actively working for a way out of Ukraine. Leading indicators are bullish. Technicals are good. Time for a risk-reversal. WHY GO LONG Geopolitics are easing Russia is building a case out of Ukraine Russian television is changing the tone in respect to Ukraine, becoming more cautious Putin is acceptoing of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, exhibit A Fundamentals are supportive Market Leading Indicators are turning postive, exhibit B Technicals are cleaner Positions have been cleared (we are at option expiry week) Seasonality is good) HOWEVER, the 50/200 MACD looks like shit) HOW I PLAN TO GO LONG With VIX at 27ish, the only thing to do is a Risk Reversal. I can sell a 7% OTM put and buy a 3% OTM Call. That keeps me safe up to ~$372. And if the market rallies hard I can sell a future and invert my position. EXHIBITS Exhibit A: Putin accepting Fin/Swe NATO Membership https://preview.redd.it/awnkwcuo20091.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3e7eddb07efb55a36491dbf54e96022e3dd648b Exhibit B: TLI indicator going positive https://preview.redd.it/gusnze4880091.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=f36bb754347ed9e98ff065ece1d4af978c418317

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$SPY 5 reasons why I am going long (short term trade)

May 17, 2022

bullish

general Analysis

[1 min Read]

TLDR

Russia is actively working for a way out of Ukraine. Leading indicators are bullish. Technicals are good. Time for a risk-reversal.

WHY GO LONG

  1. Geopolitics are easing
    1. Russia is building a case out of Ukraine
      1. Russian television is changing the tone in respect to Ukraine, becoming more cautious
      2. Putin is acceptoing of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, exhibit A
  2. Fundamentals are supportive
    1. Market Leading Indicators are turning postive, exhibit B
  3. Technicals are cleaner
    1. Positions have been cleared (we are at option expiry week)
    2. Seasonality is good)
    3. HOWEVER, the 50/200 MACD looks like shit)

HOW I PLAN TO GO LONG

With VIX at 27ish, the only thing to do is a Risk Reversal. I can sell a 7% OTM put and buy a 3% OTM Call. That keeps me safe up to ~$372.

And if the market rallies hard I can sell a future and invert my position.

EXHIBITS

Exhibit A: Putin accepting Fin/Swe NATO Membership



Exhibit B: TLI indicator going positive



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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

381.26

0.02
0.01%

Return

-6.07%
Change % Since Posting
-24.63
Change Since Posting
405.89
Price When Posted

Metrics

446.48
Target Price
9/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Months
Timeframe
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