We scour the net for great ideas, so you don't have to
Claim this username to collect earnings from this post, and the portfolio!
Contrary to what many boomers say, electric vehicles are not a “trend” or a “fad”. It’s very reasonable to expect electric vehicles to account for an overwhelming majority of automotive sales by 2050, because of the Paris Agreement. Nearly every single nation in the world is a member of the Paris Agreement. The goal of it is to limit temperature increase to 1.5˚ C, and encourages countries to attempt to go carbon neutral by the year 2050.
Obviously one of the most significant contributors to carbon emissions are current gas powered cars. This is where electric vehicles come in.
The largest EV markets as of now are:
Just note that Europe as a whole, sells more EV’s than China.
In the short term, the best market will be Europe let me explain why.
Europe’s Market Opportunity
Europe is one of the most progressive places in the entire world, and they are taking climate change and the Paris agreement incredibly seriously. For example the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands are planning to ban ALL ICE(Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles by 2030, and Norway is going to ban them by 2025. Germany as of now, is granting 11k to people who plan on purchasing EV’s, and many other countries in Europe offer significant financial incentives. For example, France just announced an 8.8 billion dollar package, which offers 12k euros(13.5k dollars) to people purchasing EV’s.
Europe has also passed new emissions standards which states that, “no more than 95g of carbon dioxide/km for passenger cars by 2021.”
In 2019, overall sales increased by 137% IN EUROPE. IN MARCH 2021, EV SALES INCREASED BY 169%. Also in Norway, currently 18.1% of vehicles IN USE are PEV’s(Plug in Electric Vehicles). Iceland is 5.5% and Sweden is 3.7% in 2020. Which is amazing. Many estimates by analysts say that by 2030 around 30% of all automotive sales will be Electric Vehicles. Personally I think this is incredibly conservative, seeing how serious many European Countries are, I will not be surprised if it reaches %40. The two most important countries will likely be France and Germany. Both countries have already passed multi billion dollar packages as incentives to purchase EV’s, and I think these trends will continue.
3 OUT OF 4 SALES IN NORWAY IS AN EV. AND HALF OF ALL SALES IN ICELAND. AND 1 OUT OF 3 SALES IN SWEDEN. IN MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 1 OUT OF 10 SALES ARE ELECTRIC VEHICLES.
Yearly EV growth rate in Europe:
Bull estimate: 100% growth in EV sales
INCREDIBLY Very Bull Estimate: 150% growth in EV sales
My estimate: 100% growth in EV sales
Bear estimate 40% growth in EV sales
Note: even the bear estimate is incredibly large
China’s Market Opportunity
As of writing, out of any individual nation, China has the largest electric vehicle market in the world. Though China isn’t as progressive as Europe, their EV market will also have huge growth. Call it good or bad, China’s government has complete authority of the economy. We’ve already seen it before, but with the snap of a finger China can put any law they want into existence. Thankfully for the EV market, China has made many laws pushing the use of EV’s.
For example, many cities have mandated that many ride hailing cars must be electric vehicles, and the government specifies a certain amount of new license plates go to EV’s.
Estimates show that by 2030, the EV sales will increase by 25% EACH YEAR. Bear estimate will be around 20%. China has been incredibly consistent with its growth. Very bull estimate will be 30%. I predict 25% growth in China.
US Market Opportunity
Arguably by far the least impressive. The government has done little to promote EV’s especially compared to other countries like Europe and China. The current president Joe Biden is very interested in EV’s and is attempting to pass many bills promoting their use. But I wouldn’t count on anything particular being passed. US EV growth was 17%, but over the past few years growth has slowed a lot.
FINAL ESTIMATE FOR EV SALES END OF 2021 and 2022
Using current sales figures and estimates for each individual country and the rest of the world here are my figures for yearly growth in total
My estimate 2021 growth and total: 40%
My estimate 2022 growth and total: 60%
Point is massive opportunity
I highly advise reading the entire thing but
TSLA or NIO shares
TSLA and NIO LONG TERM calls