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Aug 16, 2021
[4 min Read]
$TSLA Tesla is holding its AI day on Thursday 8/19 and the options market does not reflect this. This will be a great opportunity for us outsiders to see the progress the company has made and what secrets that Elon has planned for the future. Many of us will remember Battery day, Elon promised that he would reveal a lot of the battery progress (which he did) but no one was expecting him to focus primarily on manufacturing developments. The lack of anything revolutionary caused a very disappointing near-term stock performance. AI day has the potential for $TSLA to break out of a major rut.
Current State of Tesla AI
Note: This is what everyone is expecting Elon to focus on and why no one is excited. All of this info is boring and no one gives a shit.
Tesla has recently launched FSD Beta V9 (Full-Self Driving), their first attempt at a vision-only self-driving software. It's got promise, but in its current state, it's not a visible improvement. Elon will claim vision + radar is a local maximum and vision only is so revolutionary... Yeah, no one cares. Reasons why this is good for the stock: you don't have to pay for that radar sensor so increase to automotive gross margin. Also, with this chip shortage, it's one less thing to worry about.
FSD Hardware v4: There's been a lot of talk recently about Tesla upgrading their latest Autopilot hardware. Many people worry that Tesla will force previous owners to pay for upgrades as recently people who lease FSD have had to pay for upgrades. None of this is that important in the long term. Expect significant hardware improvements but no one to care.
"The Button": Tesla's latest beta is currently only available to a couple thousand drivers that have been approved. Elon has been saying for quite a while that a button will appear soon that will allow FSD buyers to finally download their software and begin testing the latest FSD. Expect a timeline update on when this button will appear that no one will believe. Elon has been promising it's right around the corner for months. If we're lucky, analysts will put some weight on this date in the short term. This button will be great for two reasons:
So to conclude, this is what most people are expecting for Tesla AI day. If this is the extent of what they cover, then AI day will be a failure. Elon has stated that AI day is designed for recruitment purposes, meaning they need to unveil some exciting shit. That's why I think that there's potential for some major announcements.
Potential Mentions that would be Major Catalysts
Positions: 8/27 725c 8/27 750c