Tesla Earnings Preview: 65% Chance TSLA Beats Earnings and a Successful Fund is Buying More

TSLA is reporting earnings After Market Close Apr 20th, 2022 with an estimate of 2.26 EPS. Based on historical earnings trends TSLA has a 65% chance of beating earnings. This should be viewed with the associated guidance set out by the company and what analysts think about the potential for TSLA to beat earnings. TSLA Analyst Ratings Let's take a quick look to see the distribution of analyst ratings between Buy, Hold, and Sell. For TSLA there are: 12 Buys 4 Holds 3 Sells Analyst Ratings have provided relatively strong indicators of future price movement, which is why they are used to determine a TSLA stock forecast. However, this shouldn't be the only factor when determining whether to invest in Tesla, Inc., I would use Analyst Ratings as a datapoint along with other fundamental indicators and investment metrics. TSLA Retail Investor Sentiment Taking a look at Twitter and Stocktwits we can get a sense of the market sentiment for TSLA. Right now the market sentiment for TSLA is 0.81% on Twitter and 2.09% on Stocktwits. Overall this is a generally positive sentiment going into earnings. Fund With Great Track Record Continues to Buy TSLA On 2022-03-31 XPONANCE, INC. changed it's ownership of TSLA from 152.95k to 161.33k. The current market value for these shares is 173.85M. As of Apr 19th, 2022 TSLA represents 2.89% of their total portfolio. It is useful to know how a fund is performing overall. This provides an indication of their ability to select stocks and build a profitable portfolio. It is tough to beat the market, and even tougher for funds because they need to have proper asset allocation relative to their fund's risk profile. First, let's look at the fund itself to get some context before looking at the performance. XPONANCE, INC. currently holds 1,167 different investments in their portfolio and the fund current market value of 6.01B. We can see based on the size of the fund that TSLA, representing 2.89% of their total portfolio, is a pretty significant holding. Let's take a closer look at XPONANCE, INC. to see how they've performed as a whole. Here are their returns 1-year return 17.37%. 3-year return 729.78%. Return Since inception 1,195%. Typically we want to see a fund "beat" the market, otherwise you are better off just investing in the S&P 500. So let's take a quick look and see how XPONANCE, INC. performed relative to the S&P 500 over the same time periods 1-year return vs S&P 500 is 3.34% 3-year return vs the S&P 500 is 669.94% Return since inception vs S&P 500 is 1,050% So this gives us a good sense of XPONANCE, INC. performance as a fund. What we want to look at now is how they have managed their TSLA holdings as part of their fund. They first added TSLA to their fund in 2020-06-30, which was a while ago. As mentioned earlier, they changed their holdings of TSLA by 4.92% by buying 8,381 shares at an average price per share of $1,070