The effect of Elon’s expiring options on $TSLA (Part 2)

TL;DR TSLA go down then go up. As of Nov 11, we are only at 20% progress in Elon's dump. If you just climbed out of hibernation, you have some catching up to do. After I had posted the first part of my DD on Friday and Elon had decided to get some marketing credit on Twitter, he began exercising his due options and selling shares to cover his tax bill. In Part 2 I look at his SEC filings and track his progress. Interesting tidbit: a trading plan for an orderly sale has been in place since Sep 14, 2021(1). It puts into question the motives for the Twitter poll, or at least it should for those who still think it was not a marketing tactic. Table 1 2012-granted and vested option exercise(1) Starting balance Exercise Date Exercised #shares Progress Exercise price To be exercised 22,862,050 11/08/21 2,154,572 9.42% $13,444,529.28 20,707,478(2) ​ Table 2 TSLA stock history Transaction Date Daily volume Closing Daily move 11/08/21 33,445,715 $1,162.94 -4.84% 11/09/21 59,105,836 $1,023.50 -11.99% 11/10/21 42,802,722 $1,067.95 4.34% ​ Table 3 Elon’s share transactions (negative denotes sell)(1(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)) Transaction date Sum - # of shares Sum - Proceeds % of daily volume % daily move 11/08/21 -934,091 $1,102,342,478.72 2.79% -4.84% 11/09/21 -3,088,047 $3,353,496,896.10 5.22% -11.99% 11/10/21 -500,000 $527,271,411.03 1.17% 4.34% Total Result -4,522,138 $4,983,110,785.86 Total Twitter progress 20.56% ​ I do not have time right now nor feel very comfortable with doing a forecast, but I am now expecting: All 2012 award options to be exercised by the end of the year (no short-term impact, Tesla is getting ~$143M from Elon, shareholders get 2.2% dilution). The supposed plan calls for an orderly sale, so it would make sense to keep the current pace, never selling more than 5% of the daily volume per day. That gives us a low-bound of 6 more sell-off days like Nov 9 left with a daily moves of -12%. The high-bound is at least 4 more tranches of 3-day periods like we just experienced spread out timewise, but still completed until the end of 2022Q1. Sources: 1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044060/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 2 There is a question on how many options are to be exercised. For now, I am sticking with the 2020FY number from my original thesis, although the current SEC filing puts the number ~2.5M higher. 3 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044077/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 4 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044225/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 5 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044229/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 6 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044232/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 7 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044235/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 8 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044240/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 9 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044241/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 10 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044242/xslF345X03/doc4.xml 11 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044244/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

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Waddayanow

Nov 11, 2021

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The effect of Elon’s expiring options on $TSLA (Part 2)

bullish

TL;DR TSLA go down then go up. As of Nov 11, we are only at 20% progress in Elon's dump.

If you just climbed out of hibernation, you have some catching up to do. After I had posted the first part of my DD on Friday and Elon had decided to get some marketing credit on Twitter, he began exercising his due options and selling shares to cover his tax bill. In Part 2 I look at his SEC filings and track his progress.

Interesting tidbit: a trading plan for an orderly sale has been in place since Sep 14, 2021(1). It puts into question the motives for the Twitter poll, or at least it should for those who still think it was not a marketing tactic.

Table 1 2012-granted and vested option exercise(1)

Starting balance Exercise Date Exercised #shares Progress Exercise price To be exercised
22,862,050 11/08/21 2,154,572 9.42% $13,444,529.28 20,707,478(2)

Table 2 TSLA stock history

Transaction Date Daily volume Closing Daily move
11/08/21 33,445,715 $1,162.94 -4.84%
11/09/21 59,105,836 $1,023.50 -11.99%
11/10/21 42,802,722 $1,067.95 4.34%

Table 3 Elon’s share transactions (negative denotes sell)(1(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11))

Transaction date Sum - # of shares Sum - Proceeds % of daily volume % daily move
11/08/21 -934,091 $1,102,342,478.72 2.79% -4.84%
11/09/21 -3,088,047 $3,353,496,896.10 5.22% -11.99%
11/10/21 -500,000 $527,271,411.03 1.17% 4.34%
Total Result -4,522,138 $4,983,110,785.86    
Total Twitter progress 20.56%      

I do not have time right now nor feel very comfortable with doing a forecast, but I am now expecting:

  1. All 2012 award options to be exercised by the end of the year (no short-term impact, Tesla is getting ~$143M from Elon, shareholders get 2.2% dilution).
  2. The supposed plan calls for an orderly sale, so it would make sense to keep the current pace, never selling more than 5% of the daily volume per day. That gives us a low-bound of 6 more sell-off days like Nov 9 left with a daily moves of -12%. The high-bound is at least 4 more tranches of 3-day periods like we just experienced spread out timewise, but still completed until the end of 2022Q1.

Sources:

1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044060/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

2 There is a question on how many options are to be exercised. For now, I am sticking with the 2020FY number from my original thesis, although the current SEC filing puts the number ~2.5M higher.

3 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044077/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

4 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044225/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

5 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044229/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

6 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044232/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

7 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044235/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

8 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044240/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

9 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044241/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

10 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044242/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

11 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001494730/000089924321044244/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

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