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SIMO starts with S and S looks like $. Coincidence? Not in this market! - Gandhi, 1901
Now with catalysts & 3 charts!
Silicon Motion is the leading maker of controllers in the memory, storage markets, and specialty RF. Their chips power data centers, mobile devices, SSDs, autos, and multimedia hardware (video walls, tablet tech, medical equipment, etc). Their customers are key members of the supply chain (i.e. Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, etc) and supply some web service providers directly (I.e. Alibaba). All of their customers are ramping production, further accelerating demand for SIMO’s products.
This is a derivative play on memory (Tip: supply chain stocks always have more leverage) and a superior play for cyclical upturns (we are now entering).
What do I mean by derivative play? Imagine Micron is a SpaceX rocket taking off. Close your eyes and feel the experience of starting the boosters, lifting off, and gradually accelerating to space. Now imagine SIMO is a monkey strapped into a shopping cart connected to that rocket by a long chain that suddenly goes from 0 to 99,999mph. Get it? Got it? Good.
More importantly/hilariously, management has continued to keep racking up sales from strong demand all year which has proved resilient despite memory market softness and all while gaining new production capacity. Somehow, analyst estimates reflect neither of these factors. Mgmt guided $1.5B in backlog being pushed into 2022, yet according to analysts $1.5B in future sales is only worth $1B in sales on their estimates. Also worth considering, if this year was a FUD cyclical trough, and next year is a reacceleration period into a decade of increasing memory demand, then 2021’s $1B in sales probably wasn't "peak", was it? I'm no rocket scientist, but I'd say no.
In other words, EPS estimates and valuation expansion are heading SIGNIFICANTLY higher.
Luckily, Needham modeled this for us:
Bottom line: SIMO is a monkey in a shopping cart about to be jerked up significantly by the recovering memory cycle during another decade of secular, exponential growth in memory needs from datacenters, EVs, consumer tech, mobile, and literally every facet of human life. This is a real stock that attracts real hedge funds. Get in early or forever hold your peace.
SIMO has been consolidating along a rising 150DMA since October. The 20DMA converged with the 150DMA, and is starting to liftoff.
If you exclude the Q3 failed breakout thanks to the blink-and-you-missed-it “Q4 cyclical downturn”, SIMO has basically been a steady climber all of 2021. Relative strength has been rising recently as funds inevitably start their re-entry. Funds don’t appreciate the power and swiftness of today’s markets, and will chase this as it starts shooting up.
SIMO consistently goes HAM in Decembers, so back up the trucks ahead of the Santa Claus rally.
Nov 30 - SIMO @ Wells Fargo 5th Annual TMT Summit 2021 (SIMO & customer presentations)
Dec 1 - Nasdaq Investor Conference 2021 (customer presentations; memory stock catalyst)
Dec 2 - SIMO @ Credit Suisse 25th Annual TMT Conference 2021 (SIMO & customer presentations)
Dec 6-8 - UBS Global TMT Conf (customer presentations; memory stock catalyst)
Dec 7 - Barclays Global TMT Conference (customer presentations; memory stock catalyst)
Dec 9 - Deutsche Bank access AutoTech Conference 2021 (customer presentations; memory stock catalyst)
Dec 20 - MU Earnings Report (customer report; memory stock catalyst)
Very Risk Averse: March 22 80 Calls. Current Bid/Ask 2.15/3.00, presenting 5-6x returns on a rebound to $80 and 25% breakout to $100.
Quasi-risk Averse: Jan 22 80 calls. Current Bid/Ask 1.2/1.4, presenting 14-16.5x returns on a rebound to $80 and 25% breakout to $100.
Pump It Up: Dec 75 calls. Current Bid/Ask 0.75/1.00, presenting 15-20x returns if strong flows cause a breakout to $90 as funds return to memory stocks after a 2-3mo distribution period and ahead of MU earnings confirming that everything is blasting off.
WSB Delight: Dec 80 calls. Current Bid/Ask 0.3/0.55, presenting 18-33x returns if the same scenario plays out. A whole lotta zeros.
I currently own Dec 75 calls.
Chart 1: Price, Fwd P/E, and Fwd EPS Estimates (breaking out given secular memory trends)
I work for no one and pay for my own BBerg terminal, so I must be an ace. Rising EPS est reflects transition to secular growth vs prior cyclical pattern, and Fwd P/E pricing is pre-cyclical upturn, adding dual upside drivers.
Chart 2: EPS Hike Cycle
Chart 3: Stock Volatility