Time to Get Ridian of Another Overvalued EV Startup

Rivian Automotive held up quite well during the rather bloody days of Thursday and Friday last week. At a 60b Market Cap, I believe they have some room to fall, as Lucid, NIO, and XPeng have fallen to the 30b-40b range. Rivian earnings are 3/10. They missed badly for Q3 earnings when they only built a few cars for employees. Some Reasons Price Could Hold: 1. Their lockup expiration isn’t until May 2. Strong investor base of Amazon, Ford, T Rowe Price, George Soros 3. TA bollinger bands are narrowing and RSI is healthy around 55 on most time frames (Any TA experts please correct me if wrong) 4. They have almost 20b in cash and big contracts to fulfill orders for Amazon Some Reasons Price Could Fall: 1. For all of 2021, they produced only 1015 cars and delivered 920 (Article) 2. In this macro environment, Rivian is worth 60b with no revenue, fcf, profit and they will have increasing costs as they attempt to build a new factory in GA (Article) 3. They need to produce 2 cars at rapid pace without losing ground to all the legacy competitors, according to Dan Ives, while dealing with the ongoing shortage of semiconductors. Also, Rivian received criticism about shady actions in this NYT Article 4. Last week all the EVs, and stocks in general, fell with the rest of the macro, except Rivian. If TSLA falls hard soon, maybe Rivian will finally fall in simpathy? 5. Q4 Earnings 3/10, FOMC Meeting 3/15 I see a lot more downside potential than upside, not sure what investor would want to buy stock in a very early car maker in this environment of chip shortages and tightening monetary policy. I’m looking for Rivian to fall toward its low of $50, which will be a 20% loss from here. I am totally open to any feedback if this play is a bad idea. I definitely want to know if I’m wrong so I can exit this play with the profit I have before it turns against me. DEVIL’S ADVOCATES ARE WELCOME! TL;DR - How is Rivian still worth $60b? How did they have a +10% week of 2/14 on no company news and a slew of bad macro news? Sell your shares, buy puts, this will fall from $60b to the $40b mkt cap range. Positions - 60 3/18 60p & 50 3/25 59p (Not financial advice and invest/gamble at your own risk… Hope y’all have a nice 3 day weekend away from the casino ✌️)

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Time to Get Ridian of Another Overvalued EV Startup

bearish

Rivian Automotive held up quite well during the rather bloody days of Thursday and Friday last week.

At a 60b Market Cap, I believe they have some room to fall, as Lucid, NIO, and XPeng have fallen to the 30b-40b range.

Rivian earnings are 3/10. They missed badly for Q3 earnings when they only built a few cars for employees.

Some Reasons Price Could Hold: 1. Their lockup expiration isn't until May 2. Strong investor base of Amazon, Ford, T Rowe Price, George Soros 3. TA bollinger bands are narrowing and RSI is healthy around 55 on most time frames (Any TA experts please correct me if wrong) 4. They have almost 20b in cash and big contracts to fulfill orders for Amazon

Some Reasons Price Could Fall: 1. For all of 2021, they produced only 1015 cars and delivered 920 (Article) 2. In this macro environment, Rivian is worth 60b with no revenue, fcf, profit and they will have increasing costs as they attempt to build a new factory in GA (Article) 3. They need to produce 2 cars at rapid pace without losing ground to all the legacy competitors, according to Dan Ives, while dealing with the ongoing shortage of semiconductors. Also, Rivian received criticism about shady actions in this NYT Article 4. Last week all the EVs, and stocks in general, fell with the rest of the macro, except Rivian. If TSLA falls hard soon, maybe Rivian will finally fall in simpathy? 5. Q4 Earnings 3/10, FOMC Meeting 3/15

I see a lot more downside potential than upside, not sure what investor would want to buy stock in a very early car maker in this environment of chip shortages and tightening monetary policy. I'm looking for Rivian to fall toward its low of $50, which will be a 20% loss from here.

I am totally open to any feedback if this play is a bad idea. I definitely want to know if I'm wrong so I can exit this play with the profit I have before it turns against me. DEVIL'S ADVOCATES ARE WELCOME!

TL;DR - How is Rivian still worth $60b? How did they have a +10% week of 2/14 on no company news and a slew of bad macro news? Sell your shares, buy puts, this will fall from $60b to the $40b mkt cap range.

Positions - 60 3/18 60p & 50 3/25 59p (Not financial advice and invest/gamble at your own risk… Hope y'all have a nice 3 day weekend away from the casino ✌️)

read-time
2 min
59.00
Target Price
6/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Months
Timeframe
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Earnings Release
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News
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SEC
Filing
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Sentiment
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