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Okay cornsuckers, time to grow a wrinkle and take a look at $UAN. I'll be laying out my points as to why I believe $UAN is the best play in the markets both short term (earnings are on Monday - 5/2) and long term.
$UAN is a manufacturer of nitrogen fertilizer. Nitrogen fertilizer is used for corn and soybean. With corn and soybean prices soaring, farmers are scrambling for this fertilizer.
For Q4 2021 $UAN's topline was up 110% y/y. And that's great, but now consider that its EBITDA was up more than 500% y/y. This demonstrates the appeal of investing in commodities when the bulk of the topline growth is driven through increased prices. You ended up with dramatic operating leverage, where you can see very strong returns on invested capital.
Now, keep in mind that the positive dynamics we've discussed higher up that have happened since the start of the year have now yet been factored into its results. This means that if $UAN's results were strong in Q4 2021, we should observe some seriously strong performance in Q1 2022 when the company reports next week.
Given the strong demand for its products, it's very likely that $UAN's EBITDA in 2022 could reach $500 million. I believe this estimate is reasonable given that Q4 2021 reported $93 million of EBITDA, and that was before the dynamics we've discussed come into the fray of late. With all that considered, I argue that $UAN is priced at approximately 3x this year's EBITDA. This is not expensive when all is considered. I suspect that cash distributions for Q1 2022 could reach around $8 per common share. Thus, at this rate, it's likely that $UAN distributes to shareholders around $25 per share in 2022. Meaning that at current prices investors are going to get around 16% yield. You can think of this as a dividend. And this doesn't factor in if $UAN's share price moves higher throughout the remainder of 2022.
Bottom line is that $UAN's Q1 2022 will generate more income than all of 2021 combined. PT: I believe this stock will be trading at a minimum of $300 by EOY.