UWMC - It's time to move!

I am the degenerate who was SO WRONG when I took a mortgage on his home to buy shares in this stock when it was trading at $8 (now $3.67, F); so I have a biased interest in making this post; HOWEVER, I also pay regular attention to the stock and its sector. I believe that all the cards are laid out for an explosive move upwards on earnings NEXT TUESDAY (May 10th). TL;DR - Risk $500 or less for 100 shares. If it spikes after earnings, sell short-dated calls against your position for $0.20+ and lower your cost basis. Then hold and collect dividends and way more profits than I will when my bags get picked up eventually. If you want to gamble, buy warrants (UWMC-WS) - they're like $11.50 2026 call options. Why: The shares pay a dividend of $0.10 per quarter, the yield is currently 10.8%(!). Analyst EPS is $0.08, but the rapid rise in interest rates has massively increased the value of their servicing book (MSRs). I think we'll see a surprise EPS higher than $0.20. An EPS beat will raise analyst expectations for FY22 and FY23 and should remove any doubt that the dividend is sustainable. Short interest is MASSIVE @ 28% of the Free Float (or higher, as buybacks have been regular and ongoing throughout Q1 and Q2). They need to cover those shares. The company grew originations Q4 vs Q1 last year, despite every competitor of theirs declining. The total addressable market is huge, they have lots of growth opportunity ahead, despite headwinds. Institutional ownership has been increasing steadily. Virtuous cycle with their clients (independent mortgage brokers) and their market share. Why not: The CEO owns 94% of the company and also gets paid dividends on his 1.5B shares. The float size is a problem for large institutional investors. There's a lot of uncertainty in the housing and financials markets right now. Interest rates are still rising rapidly, leading to margin pressure and volatility. Revenues are declining off of record years due to refinancing activity drying up. Positions: I am drowning in shares - underwater on 120k+ shares and more options than I care to admit.

back
scot-tagscot-icon

Scouted Idea

We scour the net for great ideas, so you don't have to

Original Post

portfolio-reddit logo

Is this your Reddit account?

Claim this username to collect earnings from this post, and the portfolio!

portfolio reddit logoportfolio utradea logo

UWMC - It's time to move!

May 4, 2022

bullish

general Analysis

[1 min Read]

I am the degenerate who was SO WRONG when I took a mortgage on his home to buy shares in this stock when it was trading at $8 (now $3.67, F); so I have a biased interest in making this post; HOWEVER, I also pay regular attention to the stock and its sector. I believe that all the cards are laid out for an explosive move upwards on earnings NEXT TUESDAY (May 10th).

TL;DR - Risk $500 or less for 100 shares. If it spikes after earnings, sell short-dated calls against your position for $0.20+ and lower your cost basis. Then hold and collect dividends and way more profits than I will when my bags get picked up eventually.

If you want to gamble, buy warrants (UWMC-WS) - they're like $11.50 2026 call options.

Why:

  • The shares pay a dividend of $0.10 per quarter, the yield is currently 10.8%(!).
  • Analyst EPS is $0.08, but the rapid rise in interest rates has massively increased the value of their servicing book (MSRs). I think we'll see a surprise EPS higher than $0.20.
  • An EPS beat will raise analyst expectations for FY22 and FY23 and should remove any doubt that the dividend is sustainable.
  • Short interest is MASSIVE @ 28% of the Free Float (or higher, as buybacks have been regular and ongoing throughout Q1 and Q2). They need to cover those shares.
  • The company grew originations Q4 vs Q1 last year, despite every competitor of theirs declining. The total addressable market is huge, they have lots of growth opportunity ahead, despite headwinds.
  • Institutional ownership has been increasing steadily.
  • Virtuous cycle with their clients (independent mortgage brokers) and their market share.

Why not:

  • The CEO owns 94% of the company and also gets paid dividends on his 1.5B shares.
  • The float size is a problem for large institutional investors.
  • There's a lot of uncertainty in the housing and financials markets right now.
  • Interest rates are still rising rapidly, leading to margin pressure and volatility.
  • Revenues are declining off of record years due to refinancing activity drying up.

Positions: I am drowning in shares - underwater on 120k+ shares and more options than I care to admit.

page loading card

UWMC

UWM Holdings Corporation

3.56

-0.16
-4.30%

Return

-7.77%
Change % Since Posting
-0.30
Change Since Posting
3.86
Price When Posted

Metrics

8.00
Target Price
9/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Weeks
Timeframe
catalyst icon
Earnings Release
catalyst icon
News
catalyst icon
SEC
Filing
catalyst icon
Sentiment
catalyst icon
Other Catalyst

Access the latest tools and discussion channels with an account

reddit-sentiment

Reddit Sentiment
Analysis

portfolio-balancer

Portfolio Balancer
with brokerages

sec-dashboard

SEC Dashboard
with NLP

aiodd-ad
next