ContextLogic went public in mid-December for $24 a share, valuing the e-commerce company at $17 billion. The company raised over $1.1 billion in its IPO but dropped over 10% on its debut, as competition worries from Amazon, eBay, and Alibaba suppressed investors' sentiment. However, shares quickly recovered and hit over $30 a share in early February, though the bull run did not last long. Along with the broader tech market, shares dropped sharply and are now trading as low as $14, representing a market cap of just under $9 billion. This means that its current valuation is lower than in August 2019, when it completed a fundraising round at a valuation of $11 billion.
ContextLogic is the parent company of the E-commerce platform Wish.com that generates revenue by facilitating transactions between merchants and sellers, taking a cut in the form of seller fees. The platform lists over 300 million items, and over 500.000 merchants collectively sell over 2 million items per day. Wish's steep rise in popularity is reflected in its revenue growth, already generating over $2 billion in annual revenue.
Strong Q4 Earnings
Wish reported robust Q4 earnings in March. Here are the highlights:
Wish's earnings highlighted the strong growth narrative around the company, as revenue widely surpassed estimates by 7%. However, its EPS figures were worse than expected as the company took a toll from a post-IPO stock-based compensation, dragging losses down. However, more importantly, the company reported negative 2 million in free cash flow, up from negative 72 million in the year prior. This is certainly a positive signal for bulls, as the company is balancing growth and profitability. Either way, Wish's shouldn't run into liquidity issues, considering it has reserves of over $2 billion in cash and equivalents.
The company expects revenues in the range of $735 to $750 million, representing top-line growth of 67% to 70%.
A Huge Addressable Market
The competition in the e-commerce market is certainly stiff. In fact, around 44% of the entire e-commerce market is controlled by 4 Chinese companies, namely Taobao, TMall, JD.com, and Pinduoduo (the first two are owned by Alibaba). In other crucial economic regions of the world, such as North America and Europe, the market is mostly saturated by Amazon and eBay, both of which have significant monopoly power. However, Wish found its niche by inverting Amazon's business model, focusing on lower prices in exchange for lower quality. By doing so, it targets bargain hunters through clever marketing strategies, primarily through social media. The platform offers earplugs for as little as $2, T-Shirts for just $5, and other deals that appear too good to be true.
Even though the platform has been criticized for selling low-quality items and providing poor customer service, numbers speak for themselves: In 2018, Wish became the most downloaded mobile shopping app worldwide with over 160 million downloads, according to SensorTower. Moreover, by creating an interactive shopping experience, Wish gets over 500.000 reviews per day, which is more than Amazon gets.
Wish's total addressable market is enormous: As more consumers around the world are increasingly adopting mobile shopping, the entire mobile e-commerce market is set to expand from just $3.4 trillion in 2019 to over $6.3 trillion by 2023. The company mainly targets consumers from lower-income levels, an estimated target market of over 1 billion households. Notably, from this figure, around 700 million households are outside of North America and Europe, but most developing nations are increasingly shifting away from retail towards online shopping, a major growth catalyst for Wish in the future.
Wish's valuation is extremely attractive at current levels. The company is trading at just 2.2x forward sales, cheaper than Amazon (2.9x) and eBay (3.1x), and has gross margins of about 60%. Compared to other notable competitors such as Shopify (20x), Wix (10x), and Etsy (10x), Wish looks even cheaper.
That said, analysts are expecting revenue to reach $6.5 billion by 2025, which would give it a valuation of around 1.3 times sales, which is ridiculously cheap for a company that guides for gross margins in the 70% range. Moreover, net income could reach $1 billion, representing a P/E ratio of just 8. The average P/E ratio of the broader market stands around 30 in comparison, and in the e-commerce space at around 50.
ContextLogic is overlooked by many growth-focused investors and certainly deserves more attention. The company's e-commerce platform is growing rapidly while acquiring more consumers. As developing nations increasingly shift towards e-commerce, Wish still has a long runway to capitalize on its massive addressable market. Moreover, the company is trading cheap, at just 2.2x forward sales despite being in the high-margin segment. For growth-focused investors with a certain degree of tolerance, this could be an asymmetrical investment opportunity.