$WISH: how a Q3 Revenue Beat Will Catch Shorts by Surprise

During the last quarterly earnings call, WISH said they were turning off paid ads because they were getting too expensive and weren’t generating enough revenue for the amount they were spending. Revenue suffered because of this, and they set the expectation that the following quarter would be more of the same, as they planned on not using paid ads. We now know that paid ads were turned on at the beginning of September, based on traffic analysis from semrush.com. Not only did they turn paid ads back on, but they are back to the level they were in Q1 2021. ​ https://preview.redd.it/objcuebbr1t71.png?width=1077&format=png&auto=webp&s=750c64894ea7aa295b0089d7fd3c4fad8ed01ad7 It looks like WISH is setting up a surprise revenue beat for Q3. Last quarter’s revenue was $656mm, and the Q3 estimate now sits at $361mm. Revenue will likely be lower than Q2, but the current estimate is setting up WISH for a revenue beat that could be quite substantial, given paid ads were turned back on at the beginning of September, and the street is clueless. During this same time, short interest has nearly doubled from 25 million shares to 51 million shares as of 9/30, and the stock has suffered an almost 50% decline from the August 12th earnings release. With ta revenue beat and increased short covering; we could have liftoff for the WISH launch crew. TLDR: WISH turned on paid ads which will lead to a Q3 revenue beat and shorts will get crushed

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cabbage22

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$WISH: how a Q3 Revenue Beat Will Catch Shorts by Surprise

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During the last quarterly earnings call, WISH said they were turning off paid ads because they were getting too expensive and weren’t generating enough revenue for the amount they were spending. Revenue suffered because of this, and they set the expectation that the following quarter would be more of the same, as they planned on not using paid ads.

We now know that paid ads were turned on at the beginning of September, based on traffic analysis from semrush.com. Not only did they turn paid ads back on, but they are back to the level they were in Q1 2021.



It looks like WISH is setting up a surprise revenue beat for Q3. Last quarter’s revenue was $656mm, and the Q3 estimate now sits at $361mm. Revenue will likely be lower than Q2, but the current estimate is setting up WISH for a revenue beat that could be quite substantial, given paid ads were turned back on at the beginning of September, and the street is clueless.

During this same time, short interest has nearly doubled from 25 million shares to 51 million shares as of 9/30, and the stock has suffered an almost 50% decline from the August 12th earnings release. With ta revenue beat and increased short covering; we could have liftoff for the WISH launch crew.

TLDR: WISH turned on paid ads which will lead to a Q3 revenue beat and shorts will get crushed

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read-time
1 min

8.00

Target Price

9/ 10

Confidence

1-2 Months

Timeframe
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