Wheat DD - Let's get this bread, WSB

Heyo retards and autists and autistic retards, it's ya boi u/WallStreetBreads Most of you are undoubtedly aware the price of wheat has been steadily climbing for several years. It has been a gradual climb, although recently growth has skyrocketed due to a confluence of several macroeconomic factors. Wheat price per bushel Personally, I am an avid consumer of wheat products, and in my expert opinion the current situation is the best trade setup I have seen in years and years. There are many reasons to think this latest spike is only the beginning. Here I lay out my Wheat Thesis: 1. The Vodka Angle After performing exhausting research and consulting dozens of sources on the Internet, I have reached the conclusion that Vladimir Putin or should I say Pootin ;) and Russia generally have experienced a decline in popularity these past two weeks. To put it bluntly, Moscow’s hegemonic aspirations have not been well-received by the broader world. The impact of Russia's recalcitrance on the vodka market cannot be understated. Institutional consumers of hard alcholics have no choice but to migrate their consumption portfolio towards a higher allocation of whiskey and gin. ESG at its finest, folks. Anecdotally, I can say that all of my friend's have sworn to never drink vodka again unless Putin personally apologizes to them for his heinous, heinous criminal activities. Assertion 1: The increased demand for grain-based spirits will create a wheat shortage and drive up prices. ​ Market Share of spirits; by product 2. War on the Eastern Front The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is the latest episode in the protracted struggle for influence and dominance within the region. Presently, conditions in Ukraine and Russia are rapidly deteriorating due to 💩tin's war and many agricultural forecasters are expecting this year's wheat yield will be far smaller than in the past. These two countries alone produce 30% of the world's wheat. Assertion 2: The forthcoming drop in production will exacerbate the supply crunch spurring a rise in prices. Supply goes down and prices go up. It's Economics 101, really. If Putin does the big kaboom and starts World War 3: Nuclear Boogaloo, your stocks will all be toast. No one and I repeat no one is gonna give a fuck about Google's ads or Teslas EVs or even GME's _______ as they're trying to figure out how to feed their families. What WILL survive and matter is WHEAT. All of this is not even mentioning how a nuclear winter could provoke colder winters, droughts, massive and widespread crop failures, and a general fuckening up the world's supply wheat supply. 3. Customer Sentiment. Inflation is running rampant and spiraling prices combined with forthcoming wheat shortages will cause consumers to panic and hoard flour. Think toilet paper at the beginning of covid except the toilet paper is edible and life-sustaining. That's what's coming to a wheat market near you. Assertion 3: Consumer sentiment will drive up prices and very soon WHEAT will be worth its wheat in gold How to profit: The best thing you can do is to drive to every Costco, Sam's Clubs and BJ's within a 200 mile radius and buy up all the flour you can get your hands on. This is financial advice. If you are unable to gain exposure via the physical product, the second recommendation is to trade wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. If that's too classy for you, buy NYSE:WEAT in your RH account. Finally, you can short the Ishares Msci Italy ETF (NYSE:EWI). When the price of wheat skyrockets, Italians won't be able to eat pasta, the country's economic engine will go up in mozzarella smoke, and Italian equities will plummet. Already, the index is down 8% this week in anticipation of the Great Pasta Shortage of 2022. Positions: Long Triply Leveraged Wheaties Cereal Boxes

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Wheat DD - Let's get this bread, WSB

bullish

Heyo retards and autists and autistic retards, it's ya boi u/WallStreetBreads

Most of you are undoubtedly aware the price of wheat has been steadily climbing for several years. It has been a gradual climb, although recently growth has skyrocketed due to a confluence of several macroeconomic factors.

Wheat price per bushel

Personally, I am an avid consumer of wheat products, and in my expert opinion the current situation is the best trade setup I have seen in years and years. There are many reasons to think this latest spike is only the beginning.

Here I lay out my Wheat Thesis:

1. The Vodka Angle

After performing exhausting research and consulting dozens of sources on the Internet, I have reached the conclusion that Vladimir Putin or should I say Pootin ;) and Russia generally have experienced a decline in popularity these past two weeks. To put it bluntly, Moscow's hegemonic aspirations have not been well-received by the broader world.

The impact of Russia's recalcitrance on the vodka market cannot be understated. Institutional consumers of hard alcholics have no choice but to migrate their consumption portfolio towards a higher allocation of whiskey and gin. ESG at its finest, folks. Anecdotally, I can say that all of my friend's have sworn to never drink vodka again unless Putin personally apologizes to them for his heinous, heinous criminal activities. Assertion 1: The increased demand for grain-based spirits will create a wheat shortage and drive up prices.

Market Share of spirits; by product

2. War on the Eastern Front

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict is the latest episode in the protracted struggle for influence and dominance within the region. Presently, conditions in Ukraine and Russia are rapidly deteriorating due to 💩tin's war and many agricultural forecasters are expecting this year's wheat yield will be far smaller than in the past. These two countries alone produce 30% of the world's wheat. Assertion 2: The forthcoming drop in production will exacerbate the supply crunch spurring a rise in prices. Supply goes down and prices go up. It's Economics 101, really.

If Putin does the big kaboom and starts World War 3: Nuclear Boogaloo, your stocks will all be toast. No one and I repeat no one is gonna give a fuck about Google's ads or Teslas EVs or even GME's _______ as they're trying to figure out how to feed their families. What WILL survive and matter is WHEAT. All of this is not even mentioning how a nuclear winter could provoke colder winters, droughts, massive and widespread crop failures, and a general fuckening up the world's supply wheat supply.

3. Customer Sentiment.

Inflation is running rampant and spiraling prices combined with forthcoming wheat shortages will cause consumers to panic and hoard flour. Think toilet paper at the beginning of covid except the toilet paper is edible and life-sustaining. That's what's coming to a wheat market near you. Assertion 3: Consumer sentiment will drive up prices and very soon WHEAT will be worth its wheat in gold

How to profit:

  • The best thing you can do is to drive to every Costco, Sam's Clubs and BJ's within a 200 mile radius and buy up all the flour you can get your hands on. This is financial advice.
  • If you are unable to gain exposure via the physical product, the second recommendation is to trade wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. If that's too classy for you, buy NYSE:WEAT in your RH account.
  • Finally, you can short the Ishares Msci Italy ETF (NYSE:EWI). When the price of wheat skyrockets, Italians won't be able to eat pasta, the country's economic engine will go up in mozzarella smoke, and Italian equities will plummet. Already, the index is down 8% this week in anticipation of the Great Pasta Shortage of 2022.

Positions: Long Triply Leveraged Wheaties Cereal Boxes

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3 min
115.94
Target Price
8/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Months
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