Why I am bullish on Chegg $CHGG and think it deserves at least 50% upside from it’s current price

For those of you that don’t know what Chegg is, they are essentially an online tutoring, solutions, and textbook renting platform. I would say the most popular feature of chegg is that students can post a picture or text of any question and an “expert” in that particular subject will figure out the answer for you while showing you how to solve it. As a current college student and user of Chegg for 2+ years I can definitely vouch for them and will say that they have made my college experience 10x easier and is well worth the $15 monthly subscription. I also like investing in companies whose products or services I personally use. Bull cases Chegg is more well known amongst students than I think most people realize. I would guess 95% of college students either use chegg or know of it. Currently trading lower than 2018 prices. This part befuddles me, Chegg was trading as high as $32 in 2018, back when they were doing around $300 million in annual revenue for a loss. Now they do roughly $800 million in annual revenue for a profit and are currently trading at $29??? Also has a 52 week high of $115. Insiders have been buying millions of dollars worth of shares in the past couple of weeks Announced a $300 million accelerated share repurchase program to take place in the fourth quarter of this year Acquired language learning startup Busuu which does $45 million in annual revenues with 20% YoY growth Has a total buyback authorization of $1 billion which is roughly 25% of its current market cap (4.27b) Has $700 million in cash or cash equivalents As a “pandemic stock” it should outperform should any more Omicron FUD come out Has no major direct competition that I know of Q3 revenues increased 23% YoY and subscribers grew 17% YoY despite the pandemic-fueled hyper growth they had in 2020 CEO stated post Q3 earnings that international growth is great and subscription renewals are up while cancels are down and that they are gaining market share Projected 65% gross margins for full year 2021 and 70% for Q4 2021 Has the largest data collection of homework/quiz/test questions and answers of any website Not that price targets mean much but the most recent prices targets have a high of $60, a low of $38, and a median of $50. (Current price is $29) Chart looks prime for a reversal Bear Cases Declined 49% post Q3 earnings due to lowered guidance on Q4 revenues and college enrollment uncertainty (I can’t see how this isn’t massively overblown) Lowered Q4 guidance to $197 million from analyst expectations of $241 million College enrollment has declined for 3 straight years Are being sued by textbook company Pearson for “Copyright violations” but from everything I’ve read about it, including lawyers takes on it, it seems highly unlikely that Pearson will win Thoughts? Disclaimer: I own July 2022 $25 calls

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Why I am bullish on Chegg $CHGG and think it deserves at least 50% upside from it’s current price

Dec 7, 2021

bullish

general Analysis

[2 min Read]

For those of you that don't know what Chegg is, they are essentially an online tutoring, solutions, and textbook renting platform. I would say the most popular feature of chegg is that students can post a picture or text of any question and an “expert” in that particular subject will figure out the answer for you while showing you how to solve it. As a current college student and user of Chegg for 2+ years I can definitely vouch for them and will say that they have made my college experience 10x easier and is well worth the $15 monthly subscription. I also like investing in companies whose products or services I personally use.

Bull cases

  • Chegg is more well known amongst students than I think most people realize. I would guess 95% of college students either use chegg or know of it.

  • Currently trading lower than 2018 prices. This part befuddles me, Chegg was trading as high as $32 in 2018, back when they were doing around $300 million in annual revenue for a loss. Now they do roughly $800 million in annual revenue for a profit and are currently trading at $29??? Also has a 52 week high of $115.

  • Insiders have been buying millions of dollars worth of shares in the past couple of weeks

  • Announced a $300 million accelerated share repurchase program to take place in the fourth quarter of this year

  • Acquired language learning startup Busuu which does $45 million in annual revenues with 20% YoY growth

  • Has a total buyback authorization of $1 billion which is roughly 25% of its current market cap (4.27b)

  • Has $700 million in cash or cash equivalents

  • As a “pandemic stock” it should outperform should any more Omicron FUD come out

  • Has no major direct competition that I know of

  • Q3 revenues increased 23% YoY and subscribers grew 17% YoY despite the pandemic-fueled hyper growth they had in 2020

  • CEO stated post Q3 earnings that international growth is great and subscription renewals are up while cancels are down and that they are gaining market share

  • Projected 65% gross margins for full year 2021 and 70% for Q4 2021

  • Has the largest data collection of homework/quiz/test questions and answers of any website

  • Not that price targets mean much but the most recent prices targets have a high of $60, a low of $38, and a median of $50. (Current price is $29)

  • Chart looks prime for a reversal

Bear Cases

  • Declined 49% post Q3 earnings due to lowered guidance on Q4 revenues and college enrollment uncertainty (I can't see how this isn't massively overblown)

  • Lowered Q4 guidance to $197 million from analyst expectations of $241 million

  • College enrollment has declined for 3 straight years

  • Are being sued by textbook company Pearson for “Copyright violations” but from everything I've read about it, including lawyers takes on it, it seems highly unlikely that Pearson will win

Thoughts?

Disclaimer: I own July 2022 $25 calls

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CHGG

Chegg, Inc.

18.78

0
0.00%

Return

-37.02%
Change % Since Posting
-11.04
Change Since Posting
29.82
Price When Posted

Metrics

38.00
Target Price
9/ 10
Confidence
6-12 Months
Timeframe
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