Why wait for summer to get Beachbody (NYSE: $BODY)? Insider Buying and Positive Outlook

Today we'll dive into The Beachbody Company, Inc. (NYSE: BODY), to determine if the BODY stock is a good buy. We will look at BODY financial ratios, analyst ratings, and valuation to determine a BODY stock forecast and price. What does The Beachbody Company Actually Do? The Beachbody Company, Inc. operates as a health and wellness platform that provides fitness, nutrition, and stress-reducing programs. It operates in two segments, Beachbody and Other. The company operates Beachbody on Demand, a digital subscription platform that provides access to a library of live and on-demand fitness and nutrition content; and Openfit, a digital streaming platform that provides digital fitness and wellness resource. It also offers nutritional products, such as Shakeology. Overall, BODY is in a good business for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the global weight management market size is expected to reach USD 298.6 billion by 2030, which would represent an impressive CAGR of 9.7%. Furthermore, 63% of U.S. adults  plan to change up their diet in 2022, as a result of their pandemic weight gain. Looking at The Beachbody to determine a BODY Stock Forecast  BODY Stock Competitors In order to undergo a comparable analysis (to determine BODY stocks value), we need to first outline who BODY's competitors are. These competitors need to be publicly listed, have valid financial metrics/multiples, operate in a similar manner to BODY, and have a market cap similar to BODY (if possible). By keeping this in mind, I found the following list of companies to be some of BODY stocks closest competitors: WW, NLS, and HLF BODY Stock News and Information Recent BODY Stock News BODY has disclosed a $1.9M share purchase by their CEO (Carl Daikeler). Daikeler acquired 970,226 shares of the firm's Class A common stock between the $1.62 - $2.19 price range through various purchases. Seeing insiders buying stock is a very bullish sign for investors. This is especially true with high ranking officers (notably CEO's and CFO's). Furthermore, Daikeler has been on a purchasing spree between May 17th to May 31st, purchasing a total of 2,864,679 shares of the BODY Stock for $5,003,290. As a result of this, Mr. Daikeler has an average cost basis of arounf $1.75 per share. Mr. Daikeler's average cost is currently 12.9% higher than the current BODY stock price of $1.55/share. This is important for BODY Stock investors as it shows Daikeler's conviction that the stock will reach higher levels than $1.75/share. Furthemore, it could be said that Mr. Daikeler has conviction that the BODY Stock will surpass $2.20/share, as this was the last price he purchased the BODY stock at. If this was the case, the BODY stock would have an upside potential of 41.9%, which is very attractive. How has Beachbody Performed on Earnings? BODY Earnings (Yearly): BODY Revenues: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly increase in revenues of $10.06M (or 1.17%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $873.64M. BODY Cost of Revenues: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly increase in their cost of revenues of $78.95M (31.62%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $328.66M. Since the increase (of 31.62%), in BODY's cost of revenue was greater (by 30.45%) than the increase (of 1.17%) in BODY's revenues, we should expect that BODY experienced a decrease in their FY 2021 gross profits. BODY Gross Profit: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their gross profit of $-68.89M (or -11.22%) resulting in a total gross profit of $544.98M. This decrease is consistent with our conclusion from the comparison of revenues and cost of revenues between FY 2020 and FY 2021. BODY EBITDA: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their EBITDA of $-229.89M (or -498.62%) resulting in a total EBITDA of $-183.79M. This decrease (of -498.62%) stems from the fact that BODY experienced a decrease in their gross profits of -11.22% (as we saw in the previous bullet point). BODY Net Income: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their net income of $206,950,000 (or -965.61%) resulting in a total net income of $-228.38M. BODY EPS: As a result of BODY's decrease in net income of $206,950,000, BODY's EPS also decreased (by $0.68) from $-0.07 in FY 2020 to $-0.75 in FY 2021 Overall, in 2021, the BODY earnings report was not very good as their most important figures (EPS, EBITDA, and Net Income) all fell by large amounts. Although there was some revenue growth, this small positive is highly outweighed by the decreases in AI's EPS, EBITDA, and Net Incomes.  Although the 2021 BODY earnings report was poor, there is still hope that they could have turned things around in the more recent (quarterly) earnings reports. So let's have a look... BODY Earnings (Quarterly): BODY Revenues: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in revenues of $-17.34M (or -8.02%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $198.92M. BODY Cost of Revenues: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-12.8M (-10.79%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $105.91M. BODY Gross Profit: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in their gross profit of $-4.54M (or -4.65%) resulting in a total gross profit of $93.02M. Once again, this earnings is starting to look bleak, however, we will continue  to see what happened. BODY EBITDA: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly increase in their EBITDA of $74,496,000, resulting in a total EBITDA of -$74.22M.  BODY Net Income: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly increase in their net income of $72,429,000 (or -150.38%) resulting in a total net income of -$73.53M. BODY EPS: As a result of BODY's increase in net income of $72,429,000 BODY's EPS also increased (by $0.24) from $-0.48 in Q4 2021 to -$0.24 in Q1 2022. It seems as though BODY had a great financial performance (due to EPS $0.24) as many of their financial metrics grew, most notably their EPS, as well as their net income (by $72.4M), and their EBITDA by $74.5M. However, BODY stock missed their EPS estimate by $0.11 (or -84.62%), as they reported an EPS of $-0.24 for the quarter (compared to their estimated EPS of $-0.13).  Overall, BODY had an okay earnings for Q1 2022, as it would have been good, just looking at their quarter over quarter growth. However, we now know that they missed their EPS estimate by a large amount which offsets the financial progress that BODY made over the past quarter. Worried about Share Dilution for BODY? Don't be. As part of their Q1 2022 earnings release, BODY stated that they currently have 305.75M Shares Outstanding (weighted average), which is up 0 shares (from 305.75M shares outstanding in Q4 2021). Furthermore, BODY stock has up to 0 of shares that they can issue (thereby diluting BODY's stock). The fact that both of these figures is great for investors as we do not to have to worry about BODY shares getting excessively diluted, thus, losing money and equity in the company. Latest BODY Stock Analyst Ratings Here is the current spread of BODY stock ratings. In total there are 16 BODY stock ratings, which fall in the following categories. 7 Buys 8 Holds 1 Sells Analyst Ratings have provided relatively strong indicators of future price movement, which is why they are used to determine if BODY stock is a buy or sell. As you can see the analysts are split (for the most part) between wither buying or holding the BODY stock. Usually these analysts are very bullish, so the fact that there are this many "hold" ratings is a bit worrying. What We Have All Been Waiting For: BODY Stock Prediction and Valuation BODY Price Forecast Using Comparable Analysis Price to Sales (P/S): BODY's current P/S ratio is 0.65, compared to the average P/S ratio of BODY's peers being 0.42. This implies that BODY is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -35.4% to be at fair value (based on BODY's P/S compared to the P/S of their peers). Enterprise Value to Assets (EV/Assets): BODY stock EV/Assets ratio is currently 0.89, compared to the average EV/Assets ratio of BODY's peers being 1.03. This implies that BODY is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of +15.7% to be at fair value (based on BODY's EV/Assets compared to the EV/Assets of their peers). Overall, we can arrive at one BODY Price Forecast by averaging the results from the 2 comparable analyses. By doing this we can determine that the BODY stock is currently overvalued, and needs to experience a decrease in price of 9.85% in order to be at fair value. Is BODY a good stock to buy right now? My BODY stock forecast implies that BODY is overvalued and needs to experience a price decrease of 9.85% in order to be at fair value. Furthermore, BODY's earnings reports have all been rather poor as their Net income and EPS have both been negative in the yearly and quarterly reports, as well as their recent earnings miss. However, we know that BODY's CEO (Carl Daikeler) thinks that their stock is undervalued, as he has been heavily accumulating BODY shares over the past month. Just to make things a bit more confusing, analysts have a generally neutral stance on the future of BODY. I think the fact that BODY's earnings being subpar, and the comparable analysis determining that the BODY stock is overvalued is a bit more convincing than Mr. Daikeler's bullish stance (and analysts neutral stance). As a result of this I would want to wait until the BODY stock reached the fair value price (-9.85% or $1.40) before deciding to purchase the BODY stock. The reason I would wait rather than being bearish is the fact that their CEO is buying heavily, and the industry outlook is rather optimistic (as discussed at the start of this analysis).  Note: This position will be posted as "Bearish" however, that is what I have to do in order to get this out.

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Why wait for summer to get Beachbody (NYSE: $BODY)? Insider Buying and Positive Outlook

Jun 9, 2022

bearish

general Analysis

[7 min Read]

blog post cover photo

Today we'll dive into The Beachbody Company, Inc. (NYSE: BODY), to determine if the BODY stock is a good buy. We will look at BODY financial ratios, analyst ratings, and valuation to determine a BODY stock forecast and price.

What does The Beachbody Company Actually Do?

The Beachbody Company, Inc. operates as a health and wellness platform that provides fitness, nutrition, and stress-reducing programs. It operates in two segments, Beachbody and Other. The company operates Beachbody on Demand, a digital subscription platform that provides access to a library of live and on-demand fitness and nutrition content; and Openfit, a digital streaming platform that provides digital fitness and wellness resource. It also offers nutritional products, such as Shakeology.

Overall, BODY is in a good business for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the global weight management market size is expected to reach USD 298.6 billion by 2030, which would represent an impressive CAGR of 9.7%. Furthermore, 63% of U.S. adults plan to change up their diet in 2022, as a result of their pandemic weight gain.

Looking at The Beachbody to determine a BODY Stock Forecast

BODY Stock Competitors

In order to undergo a comparable analysis (to determine BODY stocks value), we need to first outline who BODY's competitors are.

These competitors need to be publicly listed, have valid financial metrics/multiples, operate in a similar manner to BODY, and have a market cap similar to BODY (if possible).

By keeping this in mind, I found the following list of companies to be some of BODY stocks closest competitors:

WW, NLS, and HLF

BODY Stock News and Information

Recent BODY Stock News

BODY has disclosed a $1.9M share purchase by their CEO (Carl Daikeler). Daikeler acquired 970,226 shares of the firm's Class A common stock between the $1.62 - $2.19 price range through various purchases.

Seeing insiders buying stock is a very bullish sign for investors. This is especially true with high ranking officers (notably CEO's and CFO's). Furthermore, Daikeler has been on a purchasing spree between May 17th to May 31st, purchasing a total of 2,864,679 shares of the BODY Stock for $5,003,290. As a result of this, Mr. Daikeler has an average cost basis of arounf $1.75 per share. Mr. Daikeler's average cost is currently 12.9% higher than the current BODY stock price of $1.55/share. This is important for BODY Stock investors as it shows Daikeler's conviction that the stock will reach higher levels than $1.75/share. Furthemore, it could be said that Mr. Daikeler has conviction that the BODY Stock will surpass $2.20/share, as this was the last price he purchased the BODY stock at. If this was the case, the BODY stock would have an upside potential of 41.9%, which is very attractive.

How has Beachbody Performed on Earnings?

BODY Earnings (Yearly):

  • BODY Revenues: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly increase in revenues of $10.06M (or 1.17%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $873.64M.
  • BODY Cost of Revenues: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly increase in their cost of revenues of $78.95M (31.62%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $328.66M. Since the increase (of 31.62%), in BODY's cost of revenue was greater (by 30.45%) than the increase (of 1.17%) in BODY's revenues, we should expect that BODY experienced a decrease in their FY 2021 gross profits.
  • BODY Gross Profit: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their gross profit of $-68.89M (or -11.22%) resulting in a total gross profit of $544.98M. This decrease is consistent with our conclusion from the comparison of revenues and cost of revenues between FY 2020 and FY 2021.
  • BODY EBITDA: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their EBITDA of $-229.89M (or -498.62%) resulting in a total EBITDA of $-183.79M. This decrease (of -498.62%) stems from the fact that BODY experienced a decrease in their gross profits of -11.22% (as we saw in the previous bullet point).
  • BODY Net Income: In FY 2021, BODY experienced a yearly decrease in their net income of $206,950,000 (or -965.61%) resulting in a total net income of $-228.38M.
  • BODY EPS: As a result of BODY's decrease in net income of $206,950,000, BODY's EPS also decreased (by $0.68) from $-0.07 in FY 2020 to $-0.75 in FY 2021

Overall, in 2021, the BODY earnings report was not very good as their most important figures (EPS, EBITDA, and Net Income) all fell by large amounts. Although there was some revenue growth, this small positive is highly outweighed by the decreases in AI's EPS, EBITDA, and Net Incomes.

Although the 2021 BODY earnings report was poor, there is still hope that they could have turned things around in the more recent (quarterly) earnings reports. So let's have a look...

BODY Earnings (Quarterly):

  • BODY Revenues: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in revenues of $-17.34M (or -8.02%) resulting in a total revenue figure of $198.92M.
  • BODY Cost of Revenues: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in their cost of revenues of $-12.8M (-10.79%), resulting in a total revenue figure of $105.91M.
  • BODY Gross Profit: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly decrease in their gross profit of $-4.54M (or -4.65%) resulting in a total gross profit of $93.02M. Once again, this earnings is starting to look bleak, however, we will continue to see what happened.
  • BODY EBITDA: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly increase in their EBITDA of $74,496,000, resulting in a total EBITDA of -$74.22M.
  • BODY Net Income: In Q1 2022, BODY experienced a quarterly increase in their net income of $72,429,000 (or -150.38%) resulting in a total net income of -$73.53M.
  • BODY EPS: As a result of BODY's increase in net income of $72,429,000 BODY's EPS also increased (by $0.24) from $-0.48 in Q4 2021 to -$0.24 in Q1 2022.

It seems as though BODY had a great financial performance (due to EPS $0.24) as many of their financial metrics grew, most notably their EPS, as well as their net income (by $72.4M), and their EBITDA by $74.5M.

However, BODY stock missed their EPS estimate by $0.11 (or -84.62%), as they reported an EPS of $-0.24 for the quarter (compared to their estimated EPS of $-0.13).

Overall, BODY had an okay earnings for Q1 2022, as it would have been good, just looking at their quarter over quarter growth. However, we now know that they missed their EPS estimate by a large amount which offsets the financial progress that BODY made over the past quarter.

Worried about Share Dilution for BODY? Don't be.

As part of their Q1 2022 earnings release, BODY stated that they currently have 305.75M Shares Outstanding (weighted average), which is up 0 shares (from 305.75M shares outstanding in Q4 2021). Furthermore, BODY stock has up to 0 of shares that they can issue (thereby diluting BODY's stock). The fact that both of these figures is great for investors as we do not to have to worry about BODY shares getting excessively diluted, thus, losing money and equity in the company.

Latest BODY Stock Analyst Ratings

Here is the current spread of BODY stock ratings. In total there are 16 BODY stock ratings, which fall in the following categories.

  • 7 Buys
  • 8 Holds
  • 1 Sells

Analyst Ratings have provided relatively strong indicators of future price movement, which is why they are used to determine if BODY stock is a buy or sell. As you can see the analysts are split (for the most part) between wither buying or holding the BODY stock. Usually these analysts are very bullish, so the fact that there are this many "hold" ratings is a bit worrying.

What We Have All Been Waiting For: BODY Stock Prediction and Valuation

BODY Price Forecast Using Comparable Analysis

  1. Price to Sales (P/S): BODY's current P/S ratio is 0.65, compared to the average P/S ratio of BODY's peers being 0.42. This implies that BODY is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of -35.4% to be at fair value (based on BODY's P/S compared to the P/S of their peers).
  2. Enterprise Value to Assets (EV/Assets): BODY stock EV/Assets ratio is currently 0.89, compared to the average EV/Assets ratio of BODY's peers being 1.03. This implies that BODY is overvalued and their share price should change by a factor of +15.7% to be at fair value (based on BODY's EV/Assets compared to the EV/Assets of their peers).

Overall, we can arrive at one BODY Price Forecast by averaging the results from the 2 comparable analyses. By doing this we can determine that the BODY stock is currently overvalued, and needs to experience a decrease in price of 9.85% in order to be at fair value.

Is BODY a good stock to buy right now?

My BODY stock forecast implies that BODY is overvalued and needs to experience a price decrease of 9.85% in order to be at fair value. Furthermore, BODY's earnings reports have all been rather poor as their Net income and EPS have both been negative in the yearly and quarterly reports, as well as their recent earnings miss. However, we know that BODY's CEO (Carl Daikeler) thinks that their stock is undervalued, as he has been heavily accumulating BODY shares over the past month. Just to make things a bit more confusing, analysts have a generally neutral stance on the future of BODY.

I think the fact that BODY's earnings being subpar, and the comparable analysis determining that the BODY stock is overvalued is a bit more convincing than Mr. Daikeler's bullish stance (and analysts neutral stance). As a result of this I would want to wait until the BODY stock reached the fair value price (-9.85% or $1.40) before deciding to purchase the BODY stock. The reason I would wait rather than being bearish is the fact that their CEO is buying heavily, and the industry outlook is rather optimistic (as discussed at the start of this analysis).

Note: This position will be posted as "Bearish" however, that is what I have to do in order to get this out.

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BODY

The Beachbody Company, Inc.

1.22

0.03
2.52%

Return

-
Position Return %
0.00
Position Return
1.58
Price When Posted

Metrics

1.42
Target Price
8/ 10
Confidence
1-2 Months
Timeframe
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SEC
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