Zoom is a first mover who has no moat and too much optimism, it will not live up to expectations

Zoom was a stock that was in the right place at the right time. Just as they started to grow a global pandemic happened that forced as many people as possible to work remotely. Their massive growth in 2020 makes perfect sense. The thing is, creating a piece of software that allows for video chat is something any company with an IT department or even a group of CS undergraduate students could do. There's absolutely no moat for this company. They got a first mover advantage which led to significant name recognition, but people aren't exactly saying "I'll just zoom you".  I'm sure Zoom will still be used, but with a P/E over 100 and a forward P/E over 80 investors were expecting this explosive growth to continue but that is not going to be the case. In the next few quarters this lack of new growth is going to become more prominant and the optimism in the price is going to adjust to a more reasonable level. If we roughly bring its P/E and forward P/E down to where it should be, the price should end up in the low 200's. 

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Zoom is a first mover who has no moat and too much optimism, it will not live up to expectations

Aug 10, 2021

bearish

fundamentals Analysis

[1 min Read]

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Zoom was a stock that was in the right place at the right time. Just as they started to grow a global pandemic happened that forced as many people as possible to work remotely. Their massive growth in 2020 makes perfect sense. The thing is, creating a piece of software that allows for video chat is something any company with an IT department or even a group of CS undergraduate students could do. There's absolutely no moat for this company. They got a first mover advantage which led to significant name recognition, but people aren't exactly saying "I'll just zoom you".

I'm sure Zoom will still be used, but with a P/E over 100 and a forward P/E over 80 investors were expecting this explosive growth to continue but that is not going to be the case. In the next few quarters this lack of new growth is going to become more prominant and the optimism in the price is going to adjust to a more reasonable level. If we roughly bring its P/E and forward P/E down to where it should be, the price should end up in the low 200's.

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ZM

Zoom Video Communications, Inc.

113.62

-6.20
-5.17%

Return

-
Position Return %
0.00
Position Return
372.55
Price When Posted

Metrics

250.00
Target Price
7/ 10
Confidence
6-12 Months
Timeframe
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Earnings Per Share
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Financials
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Management
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